Considering the astrological chart of the President of Belarus for 2017, astrologer Svetlana Dragan drew attention to the extraordinary properties of his personality - super-responsibility, thrift, commitment to history, but at the same time, a pronounced independence, which sometimes has a paradoxical character.
“Now our leaders personify historical processes, and here their astrological charts are in some kind of contradiction. As for Alexander Lukashenko, everything in his chart looks like some kind of serious internal metamorphosis. On February 26, we will have a solar eclipse, and this is always a complete radical reversal as internal and external positions," Dragan said.
The astrologer suggested that at the end of February the Belarusian leader could surprise everyone internal transformation and changing political opinions. The same trend will continue in March 2017.
"Somewhere around March 13, there is a possibility of some drastic steps, which in their consequences can quite boldly transform financial and legal relations both within the state and in foreign policy. The period around April 8 will be added to this. And all this will give out a new, extraordinary economic direction in a common chord," the astrologer said.
Dragan noted that Uranus has the strongest influence in the astrological chart of the Belarusian leader for 2017. This revolutionary turning point, which always carries with it unpredictable steps. At the same time, a constructive position is visible in the map of the Russian leader, which does not exclude difficulties, tension and losses during 2017.
“The leader of Russia is forced to preserve his interests. And it may seem to the leader of Belarus that this is a kind of militaristic position. Therefore, the steps that will continue to be taken in Belarus will be more directed towards the West,” the astrologer noted.
The astrologer called the most difficult period of the year June, this month the partner mood of Belarus may be oriented towards Western countries.
"Here is the possibility of some alliances, economic, economic, political. Most likely, Belarus will move in this direction, and move quite actively," the astrologer said.
Listen to a conversation with the popular Russian astrologer Svetlana Dragan about the immediate fate of Belarusian-Russian relations and possible changes in the political moods of Lukashenka and Putin on Sputnik Belarus radio.
Experts agree that at the beginning of the year, salaries in Belarus will “sink”.
- Now the authorities are artificial - due to bonuses, the thirteenth are catching up with salaries up to 1000 rubles, but in January-February it will not be possible to depict beautiful pay figures, - the political analyst argues Alexander Klaskovsky.
According to Vadim Iosuba, a senior analyst at Alpari, at the beginning of next year, the average salary in the country will drop to about 850 rubles, and return to 1,000 rubles "well, if possible by the summer."
Alexander Klaskovsky believes that until the end of next year, “through twisting the arms of the vertical and the directorate,” they will try to keep a salary of 1,000 rubles, but about an average pay of one and a half thousand rubles, which he announced Alexander Lukashenko, you can forget.
– Now this figure does not appear anymore. Apparently, even the president understands that it is impossible to raise the salary bar, as this will be fraught with the economy, - says Klaskovsky.
GDP: there will be growth, but not enough
The Belarusian government expects that by the end of 2018, GDP in Belarus will grow by 3.5%. Independent experts predict a more modest economic growth - approximately 1.5 - 2%.
Vadim Iosub, a senior analyst at Alpari, says that GDP growth in Belarus will depend on world prices for oil, potash fertilizers, as well as the economic situation in Russia.
“If everything goes well in terms of all these parameters, we can hope for GDP growth of 1.5–2%,” says Vadim Iosub.
According to political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky, given that the GDP has been declining for several previous years, its growth in 2017 and, as expected, in 2018 gives reason for optimism. But this optimism, according to Klaskovsky, is relative.
“This growth rate is not enough. The average global GDP growth rate is about 3.5%. And in developing countries, the gross domestic product should grow even faster, because they need to catch up with developed, rich countries, - says Klaskovsky. - Belarus is lagging behind in this regard, and this gap is accumulating.
According to the interlocutor, without decisive reforms, the economy of Belarus will continue to "stagnate", providing our country with the position of an outsider.
In 2015-2016, the GDP in Belarus was declining. In 2015, the decline in the economy was 3.9%, in 2016 - 2.6%. At the end of 2017, GDP growth is expected to be 2%.
Ruble exchange rate: a basket of currencies will rise in price by 7%
Experts do not predict strong shocks in the foreign exchange market, but they do not undertake to predict the exact exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against major currencies.
Vadim Iosub believes that the value of the currency basket will most likely grow next year. For the year, according to the expert, it will rise in price by about 7%. But it is difficult to judge the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against a specific currency (dollar, euro, Russian ruble).
Everything will depend on external factors. For example, world oil prices, exchange rates against each other, - says Vadim Iosub.
According to Oleksandr Klaskovsky, after several devaluations, the country's economic authorities have already realized that "it is impossible to step on the rake again", and the National Bank is pursuing a competent tight monetary policy. But voluntaristic political decisions like “everyone gets a salary of 1000 rubles”, which are dictated by populism and are not based on real economic conditions, can bring unpleasant surprises, the source believes.
In addition, Klaskovsky notes, the Belarusian economy depends on Russia, which, in turn, "sits on oil", and the situation on the foreign exchange market of our country will depend on the exchange rate of the Russian ruble.
– It is important what oil prices will be, how Moscow's relations with the West will develop. In February 2018, a new package of US sanctions against Russia will come into effect. If they collapse the Russian ruble, an unenviable prospect awaits the Belarusian one, too, Klaskovsky argues.
Business: there will be no leap forward
In November, Decree No. 7 was signed in Belarus. The document, designed to liberate business, was announced as revolutionary. Experts believe that Decree No. 7 is “better than nothing,” but it is unlikely to give impetus to business initiative next year. Vadim Iosub does not rule out that there will be a little more entrepreneurs in the country, this will reduce tension in the labor market, but the situation in the field of entrepreneurship will not change fundamentally.
- The changes prescribed in the decree are cosmetic. They are correct, but minimal, they are not enough,” says Vadim Iosub.
Oleksandr Klaskovsky believes that not all the proposals of the business community were included in the document, moreover, there is no guarantee that Decree No. 7 will not repeat the fate of Directive No. 4, signed several years ago. It also dealt with indulgences for entrepreneurs, but in practice most of its provisions were simply not implemented.
“Belarusian business no longer believes in emancipation, in justice,” says Alexander Klaskovsky. - Our whole system is vicious - there is no rule of law, there is no respect for the law, there are no independent courts. Today they can write beautifully on paper, and tomorrow they will come and destroy this business, put handcuffs on its owner.
Alexander Klaskovsky believes that Belarusian entrepreneurs are “so beaten” that they are afraid to take risks by expanding their business, and new people are unlikely to come to this area.
With great caution, according to Klaskovsky, look at Belarus and foreign investors.
“There were examples when they remained here without their enterprises, so they are wary of our country,” says Klaskovsky. - All these progressive decrees can be put aside at any moment for the sake of some supposedly revolutionary decisions. They are written, but there are no guarantees of their implementation.
Decree No. 3 and protests: the new document will not be draconian, but they can come up with a new “stupidity”
According to experts, it is difficult to predict the political activity of Belarusians next year, because "protests are always unpredictable, no one has ever warned about a single revolution, did not foresee the February march of indignant Belarusians."
The current situation in the country, according to experts, is not ideal, but there are no reasons for political unrest yet.
- The modern Belarusian economic model is very shaky, because the Soviet potential has been exhausted, the replenishment from Russia has become less, and the Belarusian economy has no forces of its own. But if there are no force majeure circumstances, then there are no reasons for serious social protests in the country. The authorities will not provide miracles for the well-being of the people, but there will also be no poverty, - Alexander Klaskovsky argues.
According to the interlocutor, people's indignations about the most scandalous document in the history of the country - Decree No. 3 - have also become a thing of the past. He believes that "the protests of parasites have become a lesson for the authorities," and this decree has not yet been canceled just to maintain the image of the country's leadership.
- In fact, this decree was emasculated. I think that after the changes are made, it will be a completely different document, in which there will be no draconian methods of influencing parasites, and its most important task will be not to bring a match to a barrel of gunpowder. Perhaps in the future this decree will be completely canceled,” says Klaskovsky.
At the same time, Vadim Iosub does not exclude that in 2018, unexpectedly and unpredictably, new reasons for people's dissatisfaction may arise.
“The Belarusian authorities can come up with another stupid thing like Decree No. 3 out of the blue, which will cause a wave of protests,” says Vadim Iosub.
Today we will discuss what will happen in Belarus in 2017. As the predictions come true, I will add links to news resources next to the prediction. So add the page to your browser bookmarks ... It will be interesting!
Forecast for Belarus for 2017
The overall well-being of the country will grow from February 2017, the results of 2017 will be much more fruitful than the last 2.5-3 years. Confirmation #1. This will be especially noticeable after September 22, 2017, when all the planets line up successfully for Belarus.
From September 22, luck will smile on the sphere of domestic trade, media and transport. 2017 will be fruitful and successful for agriculture.
Also, since the autumn of 2017, the birth rate may increase in the country. And the government's patronage of the education system will increase.
So, what exactly can be said about the horoscope of Belarus for 2017.
In general, the year will bring big changes in the state. apparatus, tangible for officials and those responsible for the internal world order. Forecast confirmation.
Until February 12, 2017, the country can get a good loan. Forecast confirmation. February and early March will be good for the government, which will strengthen its position and be able to show its strength and influence. Confirmation #1.
March 2017 in the horoscope of Belarus for 2017 will be difficult for the economy and the prestige of our country may suffer in the eyes of neighboring countries.
Astrologer, researcher and educator. Author of many successful public forecasts for presidents, politicians, countries and prominent people. A frequent guest of TV shows and radio broadcasts on astrological topics. Author of the book "Astrology of Pregnancy". Over 8 years experience.
Astrologer Tatyana Kalinina
The end of March - mid-May 2017 will give events in the field of foreign partnerships, immigration issues or foreigners. Forecast confirmation.
A period when we can all feel difficulties, dissatisfaction, emotional confusion and displeasure.
From May 18, 2017 to July 3, the situation will improve and stabilize. A favorable period will be created for education, science, sports, culture and creative professions.
August 25 - October 13 will be significant for the President of Belarus. These will be important negotiations on cooperation with foreign partners.
October 13 - November 2, 2017 - important decisions in foreign policy, continuation of the previous topic and getting a result.
In November-December, the issues of lending to the country and obtaining additional profit will again become relevant. The time of changes in the life of the working class, civil servants - the military and doctors.
Next year will begin a period of rethinking and maturation of the nation. The country will develop its clear lines in the field of international relations, domestic trade, economy and in matters of power.
In general, 2017 will be more successful than the previous period in financial matters, as well as in matters of economic growth and foreign policy. Confirmation .
I hope that the favorable arrangement of stars for Belarus is realized to the maximum for all of us!
Astrologer Tatyana Kalinina.
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Belarus ended the past year with a stagnant economy and an ongoing oil and gas conflict with Russia. In his New Year's address, President Alexander Lukashenko said that he had high hopes for 2017: "It should become a turning point and give a powerful impetus to the development of the country." Analysts surveyed by DW look to the future with noticeably less optimism. They made their forecasts for the coming year for DW, outlining the main trends in the economy and domestic politics of Belarus.
1. Groping for the bottom in the economy
"Most of the measures planned by the government for 2017 were promised several years ago. Even if they are implemented, they are already too late," Leonid Fridkin, editor-in-chief of Economic Newspaper, said in an interview with DW. He believes that Belarusians should not expect economic growth in the coming year.
Kosht Urada project manager Vladimir Kovalkin, in an interview with DW, suggested that 2017 "prepares the end of the period of macroeconomic stabilization and groping for that very cherished bottom." At the same time, the expert points out that with a greater degree of probability "the leadership of Belarus will be able to keep the economy within the parameters that are included in the budget."
2. Return to the promise of $500 salaries
In his New Year's address, Alexander Lukashenko promised: "Whatever the cost, we will significantly increase the incomes of citizens in the coming year." On December 21, when Natalia Kochanova was appointed as the new head of the presidential administration, Lukashenka announced a more specific goal: "$500 next year is the average salary. With all the difficulties, no matter what it costs - steal, dig, find, anything, but $500 must be done ".
According to Belstat, in November the average accrued salary in Belarus was 717 rubles ($366). The fulfillment of a similar demand by Lukashenka before the 2010 presidential campaign of the year following the elections led to a threefold devaluation of the ruble. Economists polled by DW do not see a repeat of that crash likely.
Expert of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky suggested that no one would seriously carry out this verbal instruction of the president: “As far as I understand, this is (average salary of $500. - Ed.) is not written anywhere in the target indicators of program documents. This means that there will be nothing to ask the officials for.” The expert stressed that in order to achieve $500 salaries, one would have to turn on the printing press again, start inflation and reduce the stability of the ruble exchange rate, “and they have already burned themselves many times.”
Meanwhile, on December 30, Lukashenka, talking to journalists, returned to the topic of 500-dollar salaries, specifying: "Whoever is called to do this, but does not want to, we will part with them. No matter what it costs us, we will go towards this goal."
3. Reforms and restructuring of state-owned companies
Each pumping of the Belarusian economy with money ended with another crisis and devaluation, driving the accumulated structural problems deeper, reminds Vladimir Kovalkin. “There is a certain risk that the authorities will succumb to persuasion and temptation to solve the problem of growth through emission. But such a probability is minimal as long as there is hope of obtaining loans from the IMF and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD),” Leonid Fridkin is sure.
Structural reforms, on the need for which independent economists insist, from their point of view, are possible either under the influence of external factors (demands of foreign creditors), or as a reaction to the collapse of the economy.
Pavel Daneyko, general director of the Minsk Institute of Privatization and Management, in an interview with DW called the decision by the Belarusian authorities to restructure state-owned companies the main issue of 2017. Daneyko sees no other way out for the government. By the way, such restructuring is also one of the main conditions for granting a loan to Belarus from the IMF.
Experts interviewed by DW doubt that the authorities in Minsk would dare to bankrupt insolvent enterprises on a massive scale. "Rather, they will try to drag it out and look for ways to improve the situation with the usual administrative measures," Fridkin said.
4. Continued oil and gas conflict between Belarus and Russia
Belarus entered the new year with an unresolved dispute with Russia regarding the terms of hydrocarbon supplies. In this regard, Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Vladimir Semashko told the BelTA news agency on December 29 that "we are not losing optimism." According to Semashko, the Belarusian government hopes "to reach a compromise solution on the oil and gas issue no later than the first quarter of 2017."
Context
Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky does not share the vice-premier's optimism. According to the BISS expert, 2016 was the last year when Belarus had more or less favorable conditions for the purchase of oil and gas from the Russian Federation. "The profitability of Russian supplies will fall, and it will become more and more difficult to negotiate," the expert predicts.
5. Depression, local elections and the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution
The Belarusian left intends to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution in 2017, and the church and right-wing politicians - to commemorate the victims of communist terror. The head of the Warsaw Center for Political Analysis and Forecasts, Pavel Usov, in an interview with DW noted that Belarusians, on the one hand, are tired of living in a state of constant political depression, and on the other hand, they do not have the strength to change the situation and do not hope for the best.
“Most likely, the population will face new forms of economic coercion (such as the “parasitism” tax) from the authorities, which will increase protest moods and discontent. But it is unlikely to find expression in open opposition to the authorities, with the exception of local riots,” Usov believes. .
For Anatoly Lebedko, chairman of the United Civil Party (UCP), 2017 is predominantly a year of risks and challenges: “For citizens, it is a crisis and the government’s dead-end economic policy. For the authorities, it is the Russian factor and the final destruction of the social contract with the population. with official Minsk".
In November 2017, the campaign for elections to local councils will begin. First Deputy Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Oleg Gaidukevich and leader of the "Tell the Truth" campaign Andrey Dmitriev expressed hope that the elections will be held together with a referendum on changing the electoral system. From the current majoritarian system to a mixed one, which provides for parliamentary elections based on party lists.
See also:
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From Moscow - to Minsk
A series of photographs "Moscow-Minsk" is a long-term project of photographers Sandra Ratkovic and André Fischer. The main task of German photographers is to correctly understand and document the culture in the post-Soviet space.
Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers
Time ago
Sandra Ratkowitz and André Fischer became interested in Russia and Belarus three years ago when young photographers were shooting monuments of Soviet architecture in Berlin. "In many places, time seems to have stopped," - shared her impressions in an interview with DW Ratkowitz. A few years later, the photographers decided on a new journey. The architectural monuments of Moscow and Minsk fell into the camera lens.
Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers
Militarism in detail
During the two-week trip, the photographers were most struck by the militarism that has penetrated into all spheres of life of Russians and Belarusians. In the photo - a souvenir shop in Moscow.
Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers
Two weeks in the capital
“Choosing Moscow as the first leg of the trip was the right decision. After visiting the capital, a desire to see other Russian cities immediately arises. In addition, Moscow has important architectural monuments and the Central Museum of the Great Patriotic War,” explained Andre Fischer.
Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers
summer walk
Visitors to one of the largest walking areas in the capital - Izmailovsky Park in Moscow.
Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers
flowered weapon
“It was very interesting to observe the military and everyday culture in Moscow and Minsk. In Germany, you rarely see a bride and groom who are photographed against the backdrop of the Eternal Flame,” said Sandra Ratkowitz. In the photo - guns in the style of Gzhel and Khokhloma.
Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers
Spectacular structures
Photographers describe Moscow as an amazing city: "It attracts with its many historical sites and impressive architecture: old churches, buildings in the style of socialist realism, the Moscow metro."
Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers
Next stop - Minsk
Andre Fischer ended up in the Belarusian capital for a reason: "After the language courses at the Linguistic University, I had the opportunity to spend a whole month in Minsk to plunge into the local culture and everyday life. Much in this city resembles Moscow, only in a smaller format."
Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers
Tankman's Day
During his stay in Minsk, Andre Fischer came across an unusual performance. Tankman's Day is a professional holiday that has been celebrated annually in Belarus on the second Sunday of September since 1946.
Degradation, falling living standards, an almost imperceptible increase in wages and a small likelihood of structural reforms - experts' forecasts for the future are disappointing.
Another presidential election has been held in Belarus. Experts made a forecast of what awaits 9.5 million Belarusians in the near future.
Boltochko: The standard of living of Belarusians will decrease
Ordinary Belarusians should not expect fundamental changes, according to Anton Boltochko, an expert in the economy of the Liberal Club.
- There is no reason to believe that the authorities will go for another increase in wages that outpace labor productivity. Incomes of the population, if they grow, then only up to 1% in real terms, - the expert notes.
However, various ministries intend to work on the expenses of Belarusians: with utility tariffs and other goods and services, the cost of which is regulated by the state. At the same time, the Ministry of Trade's control over pricing in other areas may decrease.
“All this will lead to a drop in the standard of living of the population in real terms,” Anton Boltochko believes.
According to his forecasts, in order for the population not to feel the harmful consequences so much, the authorities will try to liberate the entrepreneurial initiative, perhaps even give certain indulgences for small and medium-sized businesses.
The expert believes that Alexander Lukashenko is giving ambiguous signals about what the authorities plan to do with the reforms. Throwing a ballot into the ballot box, the head of state said that he was ready for changes and reforms, but only if the population gave him carte blanche.
In any case, the expert believes, we still have to learn how to carry out reforms, understand which way to move, balancing between the economic and political interests of the official government.
- You will have to live in a country that will try to find out what reforms are needed in the next year. De facto, no real reforms have been carried out since independence, the economist notes.
Karbalevich: Belarus will face slow degradation
According to political scientist Valery Karbalevich, nothing will change in domestic politics after the elections, and Belarusians should not expect liberalization or a hint of democracy.
- This was confirmed by Lukashenko during his speech at the polling station, calling on the opposition after 20:00 on October 11 to "observe the law." This means that liberalization, which the authorities allowed during the pre-election period, ended exactly at 20:00. Now, any exit of the opposition to the street will be severely pursued, - the political scientist believes.
The expert is sure that Lukashenka is not going to leave anywhere, "he plans to lead Belarus until the end of his days."
Valery Karbalevich has little hope for reforms. The Belarusian social model has exhausted its entire resource. In order for the country to develop, this model would have to be changed. But the authorities are not ready for such changes, the olithologist believes. And this means that Belarus will degrade: there will be no economic growth, no growth in living standards and well-being of people.
Alexander Lukashenko has a Gorbachev complex. He tried to implement reforms to strengthen his system, but as a result, the system collapsed and he lost power. Lukashenka is very afraid of repeating this scenario and is holding on to the existing system in every possible way,” says Valery Karbalevich.
Iosub: Elections will not affect the economy and finances
For the economy and the financial system, the elections themselves will not bring anything new, Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at Alpari, believes. Changes may come later. And first of all, they are likely due to the fact that the country really needs money.
– After the elections, the active phase of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and the EAEU Anti-Crisis Fund will continue. In the second half of October, the government promised to publish a program of structural reforms, with which we will ask for money from creditors, - says the expert.
And only after voicing the program of reforms, there will be at least some clarity about the changes that the government is ready to make.
Melyantsov: OSCE report will determine the vector of relations between Belarus and the EU
How relations with the European Union will develop, according to senior analyst of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) Denis Melyantsov, will depend on how the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) evaluates the elections. Its representatives observed the elections in Minsk.
“The European Union made it clear that if no violence is used against the opponents of the political regime, then the normalization of relations, which has been going on for more than a year, will continue,” says Denis Melyantsov.
The expert is sure that if the OSCE report is more or less positive, it will be enough to freeze or lift sanctions, as well as to continue the course of political rapprochement between Belarus and the European Union.
The situation within the Eurasian Union (EAEU) will be more difficult. Due to the crisis that has erupted in Russia and the situation in international relations, the future of the EAEU is rather vague.
- The Belarusian authorities are already not shy about saying that the benefits that we wanted to receive from the Eurasian Union are not yet available. And in connection with the crisis, the situation is even more aggravated, - the expert believes. - However, no one will leave the EAEU. This structure will remain functional because it has a large component of politics and geopolitics.
However, the expert does not predict a deepening of integration due to the small interest of the members of the union, at least until the crisis in relations between Russia and the West ends.
