2025

2025

"Industry 4.0"

By 2025, the total economic impact of the industrial Internet will be up to $11 trillion per year (McKinsey forecast)

Thanks to breakthroughs in technology, the world is on the verge of a new industrial revolution, or “Industry 4.0,” as the founder and chairman of the board of directors of the Davos Forum, Klaus Schwab, called it in the book of the same name. Massive changes in technology will soon mean that it is not capital or natural resources, but innovation and human imagination that will drive economic growth.“Unlike previous industrial revolutions, Industrial Revolution 4.0 is evolving not linearly, but exponentially,” Schwab wrote.

What will the world be like as a result of the Industrial Revolution 4.0? For the first time since the beginning of the industrial era, the core value will come from data rather than products. The influence of the Industrial Internet of Things (IIOT, Industrial Internet of Things; sometimes also called the Industrial Internet) will increase - a network of physical objects, platforms, systems and applications with built-in technologies for exchanging data with each other, the external environment and people, as his company defines Accenture. It projects that the sector will add $14.2 trillion to global GDP by 2030 (for the world's top 20 economies, that's plus 1% above projected growth rates), and the number of connected items will be 75 in 2025, according to IHS. .4 billion

75.4 billionITEMS WILL BE CONNECTED TO THE INDUSTRIAL INTERNET BY 2025

McKinsey defines Industry 4.0 as the digitalization of the manufacturing sector, coupled with sensors that will be built into almost all components and equipment, with the widespread implementation of cyber-physical systems and the analysis of all available data. McKinsey groups all the technologies driving the new revolution into four clusters: those related to data, computing power and information transfer (big data, Internet of things and machine-2-machine technologies, cloud technologies); related to analytics (digitalization and automation of scientific work, advanced analytics); dedicated to the interaction of man and machine (new interfaces, virtual, augmented and mixed reality technologies) and related to the transition from the digital world to the physical (additive manufacturing technologies, for example: industrial 3D printing, robotics, new methods of energy generation and storage). All of these technologies are now at an inflection point: Manufacturing companies must decide how to respond to them, McKinsey experts wrote in 2015.

Almost all objects in any industry, from mixing tanks to insulin pumps, will be equipped with sensors capable of transmitting a wide variety of information over communications networks. Together, they will form entire new industrial ecosystems - from smart healthcare, in which most of the diagnostic and diagnosis functions will be automated, to new industrial ecosystems controlled by autonomous robots and using big data analysis. For example, the American Caterpillar already analyzes data coming from machines and other devices in production and transmits it to dealers, who, based on it, can prescribe preliminary maintenance of machines and prevent possible technical problems. The use of big data collected by sensors in industry will reduce operating costs and improve worker safety. Thus, in chemical production, “wearable” devices will be able to warn workers about excess levels of harmful substances in the air, and in the oil industry, drones will be able to inspect oil pipelines in hard-to-reach areas. In construction, big data will make smart cities possible.

The industrial Internet of things can also help in the fight against global problems, for example, through more efficient use of resources - warming. Thus, today sea cargo ships are already being developed that will use liquefied natural gas, diesel, fuel cells, as well as solar and wind energy, which will reduce harmful emissions. Such advanced developments include, for example, the largest transport vessel in the world, Maersk Triple-E: it has a length of 400 m, can simultaneously transport 18,000 20-foot containers, and is driven by a system of two engines and two propellers (power 43,000 horsepower each) - and at the same time it is 16% more energy efficient than previous generations of Maersk ships.

With the spread of digital technologies, humanity faces a transition from competition between products and services to competition for measurable results and value for customers, or the so-called outcome economy. Efficiency will no longer depend on the cost of the products and services produced, but on the results they will allow the consumer to achieve and the value they will represent for him. For example, when going to a comedy show, the consumer pays not for a ticket, but for how many times he laughed in the hall - this is determined by cameras using facial recognition technology - this is already done by the TeatreNeu theater company in Barcelona. Medical clinics will use fitness trackers and mobile technologies to regularly collect data on various patient health indicators and, based on them, make recommendations for contacting specialists - this will make it possible to prevent a number of diseases or diagnose them at an early stage, which will save on treatment . At the same time, this will help insurers create individual health insurance offers for their clients.

Instead of separate, atomized manufacturing cells where the final product is created through sequential processes along the production chain, manufacturing will become more integrated, BCG predicts. Thanks to communication between different objects of the production chain and people, it will be possible to reduce time and financial costs, use resources more efficiently, and more successfully adapt the product to each client. To release a limited batch of goods, it will be possible not to rebuild the entire production chain, but to make changes along the process.

Automation will partially eliminate the need of enterprises for low-skilled labor, but there will be a need for the participation of more highly qualified workers to monitor and manage processes. According to researchers from Accenture, professionals in digital medicine and precision agriculture will be especially in demand. According to BCG calculations, in Germany, the industrial Internet of things will increase overall productivity by 5-8%, or by 90-150 billion euros.

At the same time, the “connection” of objects to the Internet carries a number of risks, primarily related to security. An example close to ordinary consumers: “smart” water and electricity meters, although they will allow for more efficient use of resources, will have all the information about their owners. Thus, the management company will know what time the tenant leaves the house and returns, whether parents leave their children alone at night, etc. A leak of such information can lead to the most unpleasant consequences - from the apartment being broken into at a time when the owners are definitely not at home, to blackmailing the owner with information about him.

More serious threats are associated with the fact that, unexpectedly for engineers, there appeared on the Internet objects during the design of which this possibility was not taken into account, and therefore “naked” from a security point of view. In particular, a computer on the ISS was infected with a virus written for gamers, and later it turned out that this was not the only case: computers in space periodically “pick up” viruses, for example, from infected external memory devices. However, in industrial systems, continuity of operation is critical, because if a critical failure occurs in a blast furnace, it cannot simply be restarted. Moreover, many industrial facilities are critical infrastructure in terms of human safety and environmental impact, so the consequences of a hacker attack or failure in the IIoT could potentially affect not only economics, but also physical safety.

International industrial consortia, such as the Industrial Internet Consortium (IIC) or the Open Connectivity Foundation (OCF), will also be involved in reducing these risks. These consortia are now developing specifications and agreeing on IIoT design standards so that disparate smart objects can be connected into a common network.

In addition to industrial consortia, governments will also play a role in the implementation of the Industrial Internet of Things. In Germany, in 2013, the Industrie 4.0 plan was adopted to introduce “smart” technologies into production, especially in terms of connecting small and medium-sized businesses to global innovative solutions. China has developed a Made in China 2025 strategy, which implies the introduction of innovations in production, increasing the role of quality rather than quantity of products, concern for the environment and the development of talent. By 2025, China plans to strengthen industrial automation, develop an innovation system and raise production standards to the international level.

In Russia in 2016, Kaspersky Lab opened the country's first computer incident response center at industrial and critical facilities, Kaspersky Lab ICS-CERT. It will collect information about vulnerabilities found, incidents that have occurred and current threats, and then, based on this data, make recommendations for protecting industrial and critical infrastructure facilities. Today, there are not even generally accepted practices and standards for applying IT protection for industrial networks, and all the achievements of IT security are so far “of little use for protecting industrial and infrastructure facilities,” explained Kaspersky Lab CEO Evgeniy Kaspersky at the opening of CERT.

Labor automation

In 2033, 47% of human jobs could be replaced by robots

Robots and labor automation

From self-driving cars to semi-autonomous robots, more and more smart devices are taking over people's daily responsibilities. And in the coming decades they will radically change the labor market and society.

In the lobby of the Yotel hotel in Times Square in New York, guests are greeted by a large white bracket. This is Yobot, a robot that picks up luggage from clients and places it in lockers so that clients can safely walk around the city after checking out from the hotel. Yobot helps the owner save on staff, and helps guests save on tips for porters.

Carrying suitcases is just one example of an activity that will soon be performed by specially trained machines instead of people. Robots no longer surprise anyone in industry: for example, in September 2016, Adidas introduced the first model of Futurecraft M.F.G. sneakers, assembled at the Speedfactory in Germany with virtually no human participation. During the pilot phase, 10 employees helped the robots sew and glue sneakers, but in the near future the company expects to fully automate the process.

Oxford University researchers Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne estimated in 2013 that 47% of all jobs in the United States could be partially or completely replaced by robots in the next 20 years. Moreover, the changes will affect not only low-skilled labor: highly qualified employees will increasingly be replaced by artificial intelligence.

47% ALL OCCUPATIONS IN THE US COULD BE PARTIALLY OR COMPLETELY REPLACED BY ROBOTS IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS

An example that experts like to give is medicine. For example, technologies have already been developed that may replace some doctors in hospitals: Australian startup Enlitic has created an automatic system for interpreting X-rays and computed tomography using machine learning. The technology is being tested in 40 clinics in Australia and in most cases shows that robots make fewer errors than humans. With the advent of robots, a whole layer of medical specialties will probably die out. In June, a group of psychologists and artificial intelligence specialists at Stanford University published the results of tests of a psychoanalyst chatbot: it helps to successfully cope with symptoms of anxiety and depression and is already available to ordinary clients of psychotherapists. Many clinics already carry out machine diagnostics, and also use robots to assist surgeons during operations, in which they can often achieve perfect accuracy and precision. In the future, machine learning algorithms will allow a computer to make a diagnosis based on a patient’s medical history that is no less accurate than if it were done by a live doctor. Essentially, technology will allow medical professionals to intervene in the diagnostic process only if the machine shows an abnormality in tests or images.

At the same time, people believe in their own indispensability: 80% of American respondents to a July 2015 Pew Research Center survey with full-time or part-time jobs believe that their profession will exist in approximately the same form half a century from now. But economists say the opposite: in the next 50 years, robots will displace employees of various qualifications, primarily low and medium ones, from the profession. For example, an automatic hamburger cooking machine from Momentum Machines can assemble a hamburger (including frying and flipping the patty) in 10 seconds and will soon be able to replace an entire team of McDonald's employees. The first “candidates for departure” will be office managers and clerks, as well as cashiers, store consultants, call center operators and sales managers.

Next in line are workers of industrial enterprises. For example, the Danish company Universal Robots has already sold more than 8,000 robots worldwide that are capable of carrying out repetitive commands and are likely to make automotive assembly workers unnecessary in factories. It is expected that robots will replace waiters, librarians, cleaners and even pharmacists in pharmacies. For example, at the University of California at San Francisco, prescriptions are already deciphered by a computer, and a robot finds, packages and dispenses the necessary medications to the customer. Automation also threatens more creative professions: in January, the Chinese newspaper Southern Metropolis Daily in Guangzhou debuted a robot journalist that wrote a 300-character note in just a second.

Entrepreneur and author of Rise of the Robots Martin Ford warned that Humanity faces a “jobless future”: most work can be broken down into a series of routine tasks, a significant part of which will be performed by machines.“The Industrial Revolution was based on specialized technologies that could not be applied to other industries,” Ford told Wired magazine in 2015. - But information technologies are easily applicable technologies of a general nature. There simply won’t be new jobs for all these workers.”

If previously those whose work was automated had the opportunity to change their profession, now the development of machine learning potentially covers all industries. Moreover, robots can take on a variety of forms, often far from the humanoid image familiar in films. One of the directions in the development of robotics is the construction of soft, plastic robots based on polymers: artificial “muscles” are capable of contracting like the limbs of octopuses. Without bones or other rigid elements, such robots will be able to change shape and size, stretch and twist in a variety of directions, and wrap around objects and people without harming them. Such developments are carried out, for example, by the biodesign laboratory at Harvard and the Massachusetts startup Soft Robotics Inc. To create soft robots, technology is needed to accurately calculate and program the trajectory of their movement, but if this can be done, such robots will be able to revolutionize the work of, for example, rescuers or housekeepers.

Robotization will affect the economy at all levels, relieving humanity of the most tedious, monotonous tasks, such as walking through warehouse areas, lengthy searches for goods on shelves, cleaning premises, sowing fields and harvesting, banking services for individuals, issuing prescription drugs, etc. d. And exoskeletons will help expand human physical capabilities - from everyday life, in which immobilized people will be able to move without the help of a wheelchair, to space exploration and the defense industry, where soldiers in such “mechanical suits” will become practically invulnerable.

Should we be afraid of total unemployment due to the invasion of robots? As economist Henry Hazlitt argued, labor automation frees up opportunities for better use of human resources, and also creates a host of other professions that do not yet exist. Some of these professions will be created thanks to artificial intelligence. For example, self-driving cars are likely to eliminate the driver profession, but in return will require operators who will have to cope with emergency situations or accompany the machines in cases of delivering valuable goods. Chatbots and other electronic customer service services will require someone to write texts for them so they can train and improve conversations with customers. In industries where human life and health are at stake, people are unlikely to dare to entrust the final decision to algorithms and robots in the near future.

One robot eliminates three jobs in the economy (according to scientists from MIT and Boston University), but less than 10% of jobs can be fully automated, the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) pointed out. For example, in the UK, technology led to the loss of 0.8 million low-skilled jobs, but at the same time created 3.5 million highly skilled ones, IFR said, citing Deloitte. First of all, professions related to the development, configuration and management of robotics will develop.

3 ONE ROBOT REDUCES JOBS IN THE ECONOMY

Which professions have the highest chance of remaining in demand in 15-20 years? McKinsey consultants concluded that The hardest jobs to automate are those that involve managing and training people (e.g. teacher, coach, business trainer), where experience and expertise is needed for decision making or creativity (journalist, programmer, chef), as well as negotiation skills with suppliers or clients. Oddly enough, some of the low-skilled professions are also difficult to automate: for example, robots are not yet capable of doing the work of maids and making beds: it is too unpredictable where a guest will throw a pillow or whether they will leave their clothes on the bed.

McKinsey estimates that only 5% of current jobs can be fully automated using existing technology. Moreover, today robots can perform 45% of individual activities in all professions. For some, this means automating up to 30% of their job responsibilities.

In addition, McKinsey experts note that although it is technically possible to replace representatives of almost all professions with robots, in practice this will not always be necessary. What's the point of replacing a chef who makes $10 an hour with a robot if it costs more to buy and maintain? In addition, in some cases - for example, when it comes to nurses or nannies - many would prefer to see a living person nearby, rather than a mechanism.

But in addition to humanistic and economic problems, the spread of robots also raises questions in the field of cybersecurity. The main threat lies in the actual programs that robots can use. In the spring of 2017, a group of experts from Trend Micro and the Politecnico di Milano presented the results of an eighteen-month study of an industrial robot. It turned out that it was possible to make changes to the operating system of the 110-kilogram “automatic arm” by simply plugging a flash drive into a USB port, and to change the robot’s program of actions without any physical contact at all, via the Internet. All the vulnerabilities that experts found, according to them, were “very simple, from textbooks,” but they are easy to find for robots from other manufacturers, Wired wrote.

1.4 millionJEEP VEHICLES HAD TO BE RECOVERED AFTER TWO HACKERS USED A VULNERABILITY IN THE MULTIMEDIA SYSTEM TO GAIN ACCESS TO THE TRANSMISSION CONTROLS AND FORCED THE CAR OFF THE ROAD

On a more consumer level, Chrysler had to recall 1.4 million Jeeps in 2015 after two hackers were able to remotely access the transmission controls through a vulnerability in the multimedia system and force the car off the road. A month later, researchers at the University of San Diego announced that using SMS commands sent to a sensor commonly installed on cars by insurers, they were able to disable the braking system of a Chevrolet Corvette, and said that they could do the same with the braking system virtually any passenger vehicle. In 2016, the FBI even issued a special memo for car owners on this issue.

Finally, robotic home assistants are, from a cybersecurity point of view, devices connected to the Internet that can collect and store information about what is happening around them, record and play back speech, images, videos, etc. Would you want attackers to Was there even a theoretical possibility of knowing everything that was happening in your home?

New transport

In 2035, every tenth car sold will be driverless

The concept and principle of using transport in the next 30 years will change more radically than in the entire last century. Self-driving cars will allow drivers to save up to four days each year, trains will transport people at speeds of 1000 km/h, and people themselves may be able to move using flying backpacks.

Drones to the masses

“Regular cars may become illegal because they are too dangerous. You can’t trust a man to drive a two-ton death machine!” In the spring of 2015, these words of billionaire Elon Musk caused many to at least grin. But in 2017 they no longer seem so strange: As Google's "robotic cars" make test drives in California, automakers announce the introduction of autopilot functions in their newest models, and at least two models of driverless buses are already being tested in Russia, humanity is gradually coming to terms with the fact that the future lies in driverless transport .

The development of driverless cars is moving rapidly: according to IHS Automotive, self-driving cars will account for 10% of the total number of cars sold by 2035 (while their sales will grow by an average of 43% annually from 2025 to 2035), and by 2050 year, according to McKinsey, they could become the main means of transportation.

Today, car companies are vying with each other to announce their intentions to release an automatic car or a car with autopilot functions in the next few years. General Motors has invested more than $1 billion in a startup developing such technologies, Cruise Automation (and in August 2017, Chevrolet Bolt cars already transported project employees around Silicon Valley for free, Wired reported). Ford is testing a self-driving hybrid Fusion on a university campus in Michigan, Audi has already test driven one on the highway in Florida, and all Tesla vehicles since October 2016 have been equipped with sensors and other equipment for autonomous driving. Even Apple admitted in November 2016 that it was interested in the self-driving car sector, responding to a general trend: the creation of systems for unmanned driving is expected not only and not so much from automakers, but from IT companies that develop machine learning technologies.

But the first beneficiary of the revolution will most likely be the commercial transport industry, not the passenger transport industry. Trucks account for 70% of all goods delivered in the United States, and self-driving trucks should make transportation cheaper (including through fuel savings), greener and safer, reducing the number of fatal accidents to almost zero. The first ever commercial cargo transportation has already taken place: in 2016, a Volvo truck equipped with the Otto system (the $30,000 system consists of two cameras to control the course, a laser locator to reproduce a 3D model of the environment, two sensors to read the coordinates of obstacles and others road users, as well as a GPS sensor), delivered 50,000 cans of beer over a distance of 160 km. Otto was developed by people from Google, and last year it was bought by Uber. It is expected that self-driving cars will be equipped with sensors that allow them to assess the road situation and will be able to communicate with each other using wireless technology. This will make traffic distribution more efficient, increase road trafficability, reduce fuel consumption and avoid traffic jams. For example, researcher Jason Gao of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggested that cars entering a high-traffic area would receive a digital entry permit tag from a car leaving such an area. If there is no such permission, the driver will receive audio instructions on how to avoid the traffic jam. This could increase the average speed of cars by almost 8%, Gao said.

With the growth of urbanization, the opportunity to retire and spend time in silence and comfort will become especially valuable for a city dweller. Expensive cars with an autopilot function are quite suitable for this, according to the Mercedes concern. “Autonomous cars will take over driving duties in situations where driving is not fun, such as in slow traffic, and this will truly improve the quality of time spent on the road,” says the description of the Mercedes-Benz F 015 Luxury in Motion concept car. , which should appear on the streets after 2030.

The transition to driverless cars will help reduce the number of accidents on the roads, more than 90% of which, according to the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, are due to human error. By 2050, when computers make the vast majority of decisions on the roads, the number of accidents will be reduced by almost 90%, McKinsey estimates. As the company's experts calculated, if the number of accidents in the United States had decreased so much in 2012, it would have saved the American economy $190 billion.

90% ACCIDENTS OCCUR DUE TO HUMAN FACTORS

By 2025, 90% of vehicle fleets in the USA, Germany and China will be equipped with electronic stability control (ESP), 40% of cars will be equipped with automatic emergency braking and cross-traffic warning systems, and every second entertainment system in cars will have smartphone functions, predict the manufacturer of automotive components Bosch and the consulting company Prognos. As a result, not only will the number of accidents, insurance premiums and carbon dioxide emissions be reduced, but the time of drivers themselves will be freed up: Internet solutions for finding parking spaces will save about 70 million hours behind the wheel in three countries (this is the working time of approximately 40,000 employees in throughout the year), and on long-distance motorway trips, drivers will receive up to 31 hours of free time per year. Drivers will be able to use up to 80% of their time behind the wheel for other activities: reading, working or watching movies. “Active drivers driving approximately 40,000 km per year will have up to 95 hours of free time during their trips,” summarize the study authors from Bosch and Prognos.

Hydrogen and electricity

The second important trend in the development of transport is that it will use increasingly environmentally friendly energy sources. Sales of Elon Musk's Tesla electric car exceeded 50,000 in 2015, in 2016 they grew to 76,000, and in the first two quarters of 2017 they grew by another 40%. And in the summer, Tesla began deliveries of Model 3, the price of which starts at $35,000. This model is expected to become the first truly mass-produced electric car.

Public transport may also become more environmentally friendly: it will run mainly on hydrogen fuel. Some countries, such as Germany, have already advanced in this regard: Since 2011, Hamburg has used exclusively fuel cell hybrid buses, which are quiet and emission-free.

But truly revolutionary changes can await humanity with the advent of Hyperloop - a train consisting of capsules with passengers inside, which will move in a sealed tube with reduced pressure at a speed of more than 1000 km/h. The Hypeloop concept was introduced by Elon Musk in 2013. The shuttle tunnel is planned to be built on the ground, on monorail supports, to create resistance to earthquakes, and also to make the entire system autonomous using solar energy. In 2016, the first tests of the system took place on a specially built section of the track in the desert in Nevada. There are several companies competing for the project, a growing startup industry around it, and in the summer of 2017, Musk tweeted that he had received “verbal government approval” to build a Hyperloop tunnel that would allow travel from New York to Washington in 29 minutes. The first commercial Hyperloop tracks could be built by 2020, and it is not a fact that the first trains will be launched in the United States: both India and the UAE are considering options.

29 minutesIN THIS TIME IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO GET FROM NEW YORK TO WASHINGTON THANKS TO HYPERLOOP

Flying backpacks

The authors of the science fiction film "Back to the Future" assumed that in 2015 the world should be flooded with hoverboards - small boards similar to skateboards that use magnetic attraction. But in reality, flying boards have little chance of becoming an everyday mode of transport. As Lexus' 2015 hoverboard model demonstrated, for this board to serve a practical role, it requires an artificially constructed surface with powerful magnets built into the asphalt or concrete.

But it’s too early to say goodbye to the dream of a personal flying vehicle. In this regard, humanity faces a huge choice: from jetpacks and drones to flying cars. The latter has already become a reality: In October 2016, the Slovak startup AeroMobil presented at the meeting of the World Intellectual Property Organization in Geneva the third version of this futuristic car with folding wings, which, with a flick of the wrist, turns into a mini-plane. The company's CEO, Juraj Vakulik, announced that he plans to bring the product to the market in 2017. The exact price of such a car will only be known once full-scale production has started, but it is expected to cost several hundred thousand euros, somewhere between a sports car and a light sports aircraft.

For those who find this amount unaffordable, cheaper options may appear. For example, jetpacks are individual devices with motors that are powerful enough to lift a person into the air. On such a jetpack - albeit with the help of skillful film editing - James Bond flew away from his pursuers in the 1965 film Thunderball.

Mini jetpacks the size of a backpack are being developed by the American company JetPack Aviation. The New Zealand company Martin Aircraft Company is trying to produce larger options the size of a cabinet and weighing 200 kg. Such a jetpack can be controlled either manually or automatically and is equipped with a parachute, which, according to the developers, should save both the pilot and the vehicle. The estimated retail price of such a vehicle is about $150 thousand.

Another possible way to fly around traffic jams is a hoverbike, or flying motorcycle, consisting of a base with two large propellers. The commercial version of hoverbikes is being developed by Malloy Hoverbike. According to the company's founders, this device should withstand a weight of up to 130 kg, reach speeds of over 90 km/h and rise to a height of more than 3 thousand m. It will be possible to deliver goods, deliver assistance, equipment or people. .

Today's planes will also change: they will most likely disappear from windows in order to increase speed. True, passengers will have something to entertain themselves on board: free Wi-Fi on board, helmets and other devices for virtual reality will compensate for the lost view from the window.

New challenges

New types of transport will make the world even more closely connected: not only will distances be covered in less time and at greater speed, but people will also be able to spend the freed-up time more productively. Instead of devoting all their attention to driving, people will be able to spend 1-2 hours of time on the road on developing their business or solving work issues, reducing the traditional working day.

But before these technologies become commonplace, humanity must face several challenges. Firstly, Automated vehicles will have to "embed" into the infrastructure that exists today. Making this process faster will require the participation of telecom companies, road operators and other participants in the process, for which the economic benefits may not be obvious at first glance. Many fear that conditions will be difficult to create without government participation. Besides, With the development of automation, the security problem is becoming more acute. What if vehicles or transport infrastructure are subject to hacker attacks? How to program vehicles in case of accidents and who should be held accountable? All these issues require careful study and often changes in the legislative framework.

But the development of “smart” technologies in the field of transport will spur the growth of several related markets at once, for example, the telematics market, “smart” parking, emergency service networks, as well as the entertainment business for those who will have free time in the car to watch movies and other activities . In all of these areas there will be opportunities to create new products and services.

Evgeniy Kaspersky

General Director of Kaspersky Lab

Imagine modern industrial production: a workshop with a conveyor along which some product moves, or, for example, a power plant machine room, saturated with fresh electricity, or a metallurgical plant, almost any plant. What do you think we won't see in this picture? There are almost no people on it. The world is actively discussing the enormous social changes that threaten widespread robotization and the fourth industrial revolution. Is the world facing mass unemployment? What professions will be unnecessary in the age of robots?

What’s interesting is that these social problems of total autoroboticization were foreseen a very long time ago; one of the most striking insights was Kurt Vonnegut’s novel “The Mechanical Piano.”

It harshly depicts the rebellion of people thrown out of life against smart mechanisms. And this is the year of publication, 1952, by the way! Strongly recommended reading for business owners and mayors of single-industry towns. Social cataclysms as a result of technological progress are a very important topic that science fiction writers and scientists have thought a lot about. But against this background, today another very significant problem is becoming increasingly noticeable - cyber threats and the vulnerability of modern “smart” physical systems. The writers were unable to suggest and describe the themes of cyber indignity and digital terrorism. Yes, it didn't work out. At the same time, in real life, computer attacks targeting industrial production and infrastructure are occurring more and more often and with alarming regularity. The first call was the Stuxnet worm, which in 2010 caused serious technical damage to the Iranian nuclear program. Since then, a lot of water has passed under the bridge and a lot of new and interesting things have happened, including new cyber attacks on industrial facilities. For example, in 2013, attackers penetrated the control system of a dam near New York, and at the end of 2014, they disabled a blast furnace at one of the metallurgical plants in Germany. In December 2015, cyberterrorists cut off power to western Ukraine for several hours. In 2016, reports emerged that hackers unknown to us had penetrated the control system of a water treatment plant and were able to change the composition of the chemicals used to treat water.

Well, the latest example is the epidemic of encryptors WannaCry and ExPetr, which affected the computers of industrial, financial and other companies across the planet, which were often forced to suspend their activities, including production.

What is being done to prevent such destructive attacks in the future? First, information security standards for industrial enterprises and critical infrastructure are being implemented around the world. Mandatory requirements are established for security systems and response to cyber incidents, as well as rules governing the disclosure of information about attacks that have already occurred. New legislation is also being adopted in Russia, although somewhat slowly. The standards set by government regulators are just the bare minimum for government agencies and critical infrastructure operators. But often this minimum level is not easy to achieve even for state-owned companies with their resources. And this is taking into account the fact that an understanding is gradually emerging of how large the potential scale of damage is in the event of a successful attack on industrial systems. We advise manufacturing companies and critical infrastructure operators to increase their level of protection and try to maintain it above the minimum recommended level. Secondly, computer security incident response teams are being created - special government or private units that investigate and prevent cybercrimes. Groups that specialize in industrial security are abbreviated as ICS-CERT - Industrial Control Systems Cyber ​​Emergency Response Team. In the United States, the first ICS-CERT was formed in 2009, and there it belongs to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The first Russian ICS-CERT was opened by our company, it happened less than a year ago - that is, seven years after the American one - and this is a private project, which still cannot be compared in resources and capabilities with the government one.

It should be noted that the priorities of technologists and information security specialists have historically differed: the former has always been more important than the continuity of technological processes, the latter - data confidentiality and system protection.

The industry is conservative, suspicious of IT innovations and, as a rule, is guided by the principle “if it works, don’t touch it.” In fact, this also means “do not install patches and updates.” As a result, many industrial systems remain vulnerable even to old threats that have long been protected against. And these systems are increasingly connected to the Internet. Gradually, businesses are realizing the growing danger of cyber attacks: just four years ago, in the threat rating compiled annually by the insurance company Allianz, they took 15th place, and in 2017 they rose to third and came very close to second. In some countries, for example in Germany, computer attacks have become the main fear of business. When talking about the dangers for business and industry, one can forget about the place of man in the world of the victorious fourth industrial revolution. However, in depopulated workshops, the role of people has increased many times over. They are the ones who determine the level of information security of a company, and without a strong team of specialists in this field one cannot even dream of any security. Well, if the staff does not understand the basic rules of computer hygiene and does not follow them, then no matter how much you invest in protective hardware and software, the level of risks will remain high. You may be under the impression that the outlook ahead is extremely bleak. This is not entirely true. Already, thanks to innovations in production systems, labor productivity has increased significantly. At the same time, their reliability, accuracy and trouble-free operation have reached unprecedented heights. Yes, along with this, the interconnectedness of control systems using computer networks has sharply increased. In many cases, it is now simply impossible to disconnect critical systems from the Internet; this would be a step backward in terms of performance and reliability. You just need to remember that very serious problems, man-made disasters and other cataclysms can become a by-product of this development. Our task is to be able to anticipate and prevent them.

There is an understanding of what to do, solutions exist, states are slowly realizing the importance of cyber protection of critical infrastructure, universities are beginning to train specialists. There will be a lot of work, and how we respond to this challenge depends only on us.

Oleg Gorobets

Head of Technology Positioning Department at Kaspersky Lab

A separate huge layer of issues is the relationship between people and robots. Even before the emergence of true artificial intelligence, the desire to see in a number of situations not a faceless performing apparatus, but something human-like will certainly generate a corresponding proposal from manufacturers, but at the same time it will bring a huge number of questions related to psychology and interesting legal conflicts. Is it legal to use humanoid robots to implement some social interactions, for example, to satisfy sexual needs? What about the consequences of developing an emotional attachment to a robot for adults, or even more so for much more impressionable children and adolescents? Will basic social concepts and values, such as the sacredness of human life, change catastrophically?

In turn, society requires guarantees that robots cannot in principle cause harm to humans. But how can this be achieved if machine intelligence is based on a software system that, as one of the basic tenets of cybersecurity states, will always be hackable? Science fiction writers, led by Isaac Asimov, have been asking these questions for much of the 20th century - but in the 21st, finding answers to them is likely to become an urgent need. One thing is clear: the appearance of humanoid robots next to people, doing what people used to do and even more, will irreversibly change the existing society.

Another far-reaching consequence is predicted by some futurologists for humanity, which has shifted an excessive share of worries onto the shoulders of automata. This is a general decline in survival potential, which develops through the ability to overcome difficulties, do basic things with one's own hands, and solve complex problems with the power of one's own mind. For a techno-civilization that has crossed a certain threshold - and for now humanity is developing precisely along this path - a natural or man-made disaster that has led to the failure of a number of critical processes can much more easily bring humanity to the brink of death. This probably sounds overly pessimistic, but it is definitely worth thinking about measures aimed at compensating for the excessive technologization of society.

Children spending most of their time with their eyes on electronic devices instead of exploring the world and learning to interact with it and with other people is already an obvious problem.

The immediate basic problems of widespread robotization and automation are the loss of jobs, loss of professions, lack of employment for large sections of the population, psychological problems, decreased survival potential, legal (and medical) problems related to the threat to the life and mental health of people, moral and ethical problems , legal problems of a social nature (what does it take to fire a person and buy a robot in his place? How can a person protect his rights?). New threats will also arise from a cybersecurity point of view: robots actively interact with the physical world. Military robots will radically change the approach to combat operations, lowering the threshold of force in the event of confrontation with an enemy with similar capabilities. The military use of autonomous robots automatically violates Asimov's “laws of robotics,” which creates a dangerous precedent and potential for “robotic terrorism.”

At the same time, the development of labor automation provides titanic business prospects for the entire civilization: new production models, the development of previously undeveloped spaces. However, it is very important not to forget about the moral, ethical, social and environmental aspects of such automation. A whole range of more distant consequences would be worth calculating in advance. By the way, machine intelligence (sic!) can help with this.

Robotics is also giving rise to a huge new market in the field of information security, which will be transformed in accordance with the improvement of machine intelligence, as well as the ability of robots to perform activities that reproduce human activities and can harm people. Thus, forensics - investigations, the science of collecting evidence - will finally cease to exist only in the physical or only in the digital space, because the digital world will be actively integrated with the real world. Social cataclysms that can cause the rapid penetration of robotics into various aspects of life will primarily affect “ordinary” consumers, whose skills and existing jobs for their use will no longer be needed. However, this is a matter of the distant future for 95% of people (see above). However, if circumstances allow, pursuing a career in machine intelligence, cybersecurity, and biomechanics offers better prospects (in the time ahead).

Like any new technology, new transportation can pose a risk to life, especially given the new aspects of cybersecurity and airspace exploration. The transport system is a full-fledged critical infrastructure, and new technologies applied to it open up new opportunities for sabotage and terrorism. Transport control is one of the important, still remaining physical skills in modern civilization. By taking away the need to purchase it from the general public, we may make ourselves more vulnerable in the event of any global cataclysms, when it suddenly becomes impossible to rely on centralized control and the help of robots. The emergence of transport accessibility for previously inaccessible regions leads to the emergence of environmental problems (“the advance of civilization” on wild regions, disruption of existing natural ecosystems, disappearance of endemic species, etc.). The expansion of the use of unmanned and robotic vehicles for military purposes will reduce the qualifications for force, which may not have the best effect on the situation in the world.

But of course, new transport opens up vast prospects for a number of knowledge-intensive business areas aimed at updating existing transport and related infrastructure (including air navigation). Opening spaces provide new opportunities in the field of natural resource extraction, agriculture, and tourism. “Mobile business” is gaining a new dimension: the workplace can not only be located anywhere, but also move in space (subject to the simultaneous improvement of communication systems).

Transport cybersecurity is one of the most important areas in the development of technology, because it has a pronounced physical aspect (threat to life and health). We already know cases of hacking of “smart” cars: computer security experts Charlie Miller and Chris Valasek were able to seize control of a Jeep Cherokee crossover back in 2015. They managed to carry out the hack remotely. Fortunately, we are still talking about research, but you should always remember that in parallel with experts in the field of information security, cybercriminals are undoubtedly conducting similar experiments.

The situation did not go unnoticed: manufacturers of operating systems and cars themselves began to implement various measures to protect against cyber threats. But unfortunately, it is obvious that all the security measures currently being implemented will not be enough. Computer giants such as Microsoft and Apple have spent years ensuring the security of their own products. The auto industry doesn't have that time.

To avoid such incidents, developers should be guided by two basic principles - isolation and controlled communication. The principle of isolation means that two separate systems whose functionality does not specifically require it cannot influence each other. For example, the multimedia system should not interact with the control system (as happened in the case of the Jeep Cherokee). The principle of controlled communication implies the introduction of encryption procedures and verification of access rights when transmitting and receiving information not only between the car and the external environment, but also between its individual electronic subsystems. Judging by the results of the Jeep Cherokee experiment, this vehicle used weak, vulnerable access control algorithms, and encryption was not implemented correctly.

But still, the development of transport infrastructure brings many positive aspects: public transport will receive a new dimension, more active development of the “Delhi-mobile” model will follow and the expansion of the coverage of such services to suburban areas. Large cities have a chance to relieve congestion and get rid of traffic jams. The development of new modes of transportation based on new types of transport, and their accessibility to a wider population, will stimulate the development of the travel and tourism industry. Ultimately, a person will have more time available that can be spent more efficiently.

LIGNA 2015, the new concept of “Industry 4.0” was mentioned everywhere: on banners, in catalogues, at seminars and just in conversations. Let's figure out what this concept is, where it came from and what to expect from it in our industry.

What is this?

Industry 4.0 is the so-called “future project” of the German federal government. This is a strategic plan for the development of the German economy, providing for a breakthrough in the field of information technology. But unlike, for example, the United States, where they are developing IT technologies towards social networks, entertainment, and communications, the Germans set the task of connecting industrial equipment and entire production facilities to the network.

The maximum effect is expected to be achieved by combining Germany's traditionally strong position in the industry with the latest achievements in the field of information technology.

Why 4.0?

It is believed that the new direction of industrial development marks the fourth industrial revolution. The first was associated with the replacement of the muscular strength of workers with the energy of steam and water in the first machines in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. The second was with electrification and the introduction of assembly line production at the beginning of the 20th century. The third revolution occurred in the 60-70s of the last century in connection with the development of computer numerical control (CNC) and microprocessors.

The fourth stage, according to German experts, should be related to the Internet and artificial intelligence. “Smart equipment” in “smart factories” will independently, without human intervention, access the network, transmit and receive information necessary for work.

Initial situation.

Germany is a supplier of industrial equipment and technologies to the whole world. The “made in Germany” brand has always stood for quality and reliability.

However, competitors are not asleep. China, and now other developing countries, are actively mastering new technologies and offering their equipment. Moreover, this situation was largely created by Western countries themselves, transferring their production to third world countries - as a result, they became dependent on the manufacturing countries. Now the task arises of regaining independence and reviving the industry at home.

The United States is solving this problem, including by resuming the extraction of energy resources on its territory, which creates the preconditions for the return of production from Asia and Europe.

Germany does not have the natural resources of the United States, labor is expensive, and there is also the demographic problem of an aging population.

To remain a leader, it is necessary to increase the already high efficiency and minimize the use of human labor in production. The Industry 4.0 project is designed to solve such problems.

Main dates:

January 2011– project initiation.

November 2011– the project was adopted by the government as part of the “High-Tech Strategy 2020” plan.

January – October 2012– creation of a working group to coordinate the project and develop the first recommendations for implementation.

April 2013– German industrial unions BITKOM, VDMA and ZVEI, uniting about 5,000 companies, founded the so-called Industry 4.0 Platform http://www.plattform-i40.de With the support of the platform, self-organizing working groups are created on various aspects of project implementation.

2014-2015 holding numerous forums and discussions, first implementations. In 2015, almost all industrial exhibitions in Hannover were held under the slogans of the fourth industrial revolution, including the woodworking exhibition LIGNA.

April 14, 2015 a project deployment strategy has been published with intermediate dates for each section until 2020 http://www.plattform-i40.de/sites/default/files/150410_Umsetzungsstrategie_0.pdf

Initiator of the project

In January 2012, the project was proposed to the federal government by the Research Union of Germany (Forschungsunion), which brings together representatives of science and economics.

Project coordinator

A working group led by Dr. Siegfried Dais, Deputy Director of Robert-Bosch GmbH and Professor Henning Kagermann, President of the Academy of Technical Sciences.

Project budget

The government has allocated 200 million euros from the state budget for the implementation of the first stage of the project. Here it should be borne in mind that financing is intended only to initiate and prepare the basis for launching the process - in the future, the project will objectively be developed by industrial enterprises independently. Business has already allocated an additional 300 million euros.

By comparison, a total of more than 4 billion euros have been allocated for projects related to energy and renewable energy sources.

Basic Concepts

The Industry 4.0 project is based on the ideas of the “Internet of Things” - IoT (Internet of things) and “cyber-physical systems” - CPS (Cyber-Physical Systems).

We are talking about turning inanimate objects (in this case, components of a production system) into active Internet users. Already today, many “smart” systems can connect to the network without human intervention - let’s remember the “smart home”, modern cars, smart parking, environmental monitoring systems, and energy supply. The number of devices connected to the network will soon exceed the population of the planet, and by 2020, according to analysts, it will amount to 26 billion.

For manufacturing, the ability for different components to communicate via a network opens up incredible prospects. In smart factories, machines will understand their surroundings and will be able to communicate using a single network protocol with each other, as well as with the logistics and business systems of suppliers and consumers. Production equipment, receiving information about changing requirements, will be able to make adjustments to the technological process. As a result, production systems will become capable of self-optimization and self-configuration, equipment will perform self-diagnosis, and there will be further increases in product flexibility and individualization.

The workpiece will be able to tell the machine exactly what operations are needed to process it and which tool to choose, and the transport system - along which route it should be transferred for the next operation. Unit parts will be able to signal their wear and tear and transmit orders via the Internet to spare parts manufacturers and alert service departments about planned repairs.

Industry 4.0, thanks to the flexibility and adaptability provided by cyber-physical systems, will help implement mass production based on individual orders (German: “Losgrösse =1” - “batch size = 1”), which will reduce the price of products. Classical methods of organizing production assumed that only large batches of goods could be produced using the in-line method. Thanks to new principles for organizing production processes, it becomes possible to produce individual products in an industrial way.

Already today there is a steady trend towards a transition from strict centralized management of production processes to a decentralized model of collecting, processing information and making decisions. Moreover, the level of autonomy is constantly growing. Ultimately, such a system becomes an active component capable of independently managing its production process.

An example of the use of cyber-physical systems in manufacturing is the Chrysler plant in Toledo. More than 700 bodies for Jeep Wrangler vehicles are produced here every day.

In this case, 259 German KUKA robots are involved, which “communicate” with 60,000 (!) other devices and machines. Data exchange and storage are organized using cloud technology. Modern solutions have significantly increased productivity and flexibility.

Here is what the head of the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Wahlster, says about this: “Cyber-physical systems will radically change the traditional logic of production, since each work object will determine for itself what work needs to be done … The emergence of machines' ability to understand a certain situation will lead to a completely new level of quality in industrial production. The interaction between a large number of individual components will allow the development of solutions that were previously impossible to program in production plants... “ Significantly improve productivity and flexibility.

“A good example of this is an anthill, where each insect individually is not particularly intelligent, but when a large number of ants interact at the same time, they can develop amazing solutions. This phenomenon is also used in Industry 4.0.”

What about others?

The German initiative found a response around the world:

— in the USA in 2014, a non-profit consortium of the Industrial Internet was created,

— China has adopted the “Chinese Manufacturing 2025” doctrine and has set the task of consistently bringing the level of its industry from 2.0 to 3.0 and then also breaking through to 4.0.

— the Japanese are actively discussing their own concepts of “Connected Factories” (connected to a network of factories) for their industry (Monozukuri)

Criticism

The Industry 4.0 project was initiated from above. And like any such undertaking, it moves slowly and acquires a large number of organizations. The Germans themselves talk about slowness, bureaucracy, and lack of real results.

The typical German tendency to first systematize and write down everything point by point and only then begin to act is criticized, so fears are expressed that while the Germans are honing the formulations at numerous conferences and forums, the Americans can advance their industrial Internet to practical implementation.

However, we agree that it is better to move forward slowly but surely than not to do so at all. It is gratifying when in one of the most developed industrial countries the government does not stop there, but makes every effort to direct the best minds to solve strategic problems and unites business and science in this direction.

Concerns

Left-wing politicians in Germany have raised concerns that Industry 4.0 could hit employment. Data is provided that in the long term, out of 30.9 million jobs, robots and computers will replace about 18 million - that is, 59%.

Proponents of progress object that the new approaches are precisely aimed at stimulating the European economy and eliminating imbalances in the international distribution of employment that have arisen as a result of the unbridled transfer of production to third world countries. In addition, the fourth industrial revolution does not threaten all professions. The labor market will change, professionalism and competence will be in demand.

The fourth revolution in our industry

Naturally, woodworking in general and the furniture industry in particular are not at the forefront of industrial progress. However, at LIGNA 2015 in Hannover, new approaches became visible in our industry. Frankly speaking, radical new products related specifically to cyber-physical systems and “smart factories” have not yet appeared. Under the slogans of Industry 4.0, visitors were presented with earlier developments related to automation and individualization of production. It’s just that epithets have begun to be used more often: computerized, digital, integrated, intelligent, etc.

What really stood out at LIGNA 2015 was the abundance and variety of robots. Previously, there were fewer of them and these were usually traditional manipulators for loading and unloading machines or moving parts in a warehouse. Now the range of applications of robots in woodworking has expanded. A whole range of robots were presented for painting, polishing, palletizing, for servicing saw centers and inter-operational parts storage warehouses.

The increased interest in robots in the industry may be due, among other things, to the fact that in 2014, Dürr, a company specializing in equipment for the automotive industry, an industry where robotics is traditionally popular, became the new owner of Homag.

Leading equipment manufacturers and firms specializing in automation presented conceptual designs for flexible furniture factories capable of producing products in Losgrösse =1 mode (German: “batch size =1”).

Our German partner, the consulting firm Lignum Consulting, presented at the LIGNA exhibition the report “Seven Key Elements of Integrated Networked Furniture Production”, and also for the first time in the history of the exhibition conducted two-hour tours for specialists on the topic of Industry 4.0 in the furniture industry.

The Industry 4.0 project primarily solves Germany’s internal problems, but its consequences cannot but affect consumers of German technology around the world, including in Russia.

We do not yet have the prerequisites for the development of the fourth industrial revolution at the current level of our furniture and woodworking production. However, it is important to know about current trends, for example, in order to avoid mistakes when choosing equipment. An example from practice is the purchase of expensive equipment designed for the modern Losgrösse =1 concept (see above) - that is, for flexible individual production, and its use on a flow with batch sizes of hundreds and even thousands of pieces. At the same time, the expected increase in productivity does not occur, and functions such as automatic tuning, part identification, loading of programs or worksheets, and modern communication protocols become useless.

Studying the experience of implementing the Industry 4.0 project can also be useful for those few Russian factories that, despite difficult times, set ambitious goals to reach the modern European level. For such enterprises, we are ready to provide more detailed information on this topic and offer cooperation in modernizing production.

The term “Industry 4.0” appeared in Europe: in 2011, at one of the industrial exhibitions in Hannover, the German government spoke about the need for wider use of information technology in production. A group of officials and professionals specially created for this purpose has developed a strategy for transforming the country's manufacturing enterprises into “smart” ones. This example was followed by other countries that are actively developing new technologies. And the term “Industry 4.0” began to be used as a synonym for the fourth industrial revolution. Its essence is that today the material world is connected with the virtual, as a result of which new cyber-physical complexes are born, united into one digital ecosystem. Robotic manufacturing and smart factories are one of the components of a transformed industry. The fourth industrial revolution means increasing automation of absolutely all processes and stages of production: digital design of a product, creation of its virtual copy, collaboration of engineers and designers in a single digital design bureau, remote configuration of equipment at the factory to the technical requirements for the release of this particular “smart” product , automatic ordering of the necessary components in the required quantity, control of their delivery, monitoring the path of the finished product from the factory warehouse to the store and to the final client. But even after the sale, the manufacturer does not forget about his product, as was previously the case in the classical model: he controls the conditions of use, can change settings remotely, update software, warn the client about possible breakdowns, and at the end of the use cycle, accept the product for disposal.

Today, the material world is connecting with the virtual, as a result of which new cyber-physical complexes are born, united into one digital ecosystem.

This is how they now produce anything - from smart kettles and frying pans to smartphones. Last year, Apple began a recycling program for old iPhones: robots disassemble them, remove the most valuable parts, which are then used again, and the rest is recycled with minimal harm to the environment. The concept of Industry 4.0 is often depicted as a mathematical infinity sign - it illustrates this endless cycle of interaction between manufacturer, product and customer.
The Germans have formulated several basic principles for building Industry 4.0, following which companies can implement scenarios of the fourth industrial revolution at their enterprises.

• The first is interoperability, which refers to the ability of machines, devices, sensors and people to interact and communicate with each other through the Internet of Things (IoT).
• This leads to the next principle - the transparency that results from such interaction. In the virtual world, a digital copy of real objects and systems of functions is created, which exactly repeats everything that happens to its physical clone. As a result, the most complete information is accumulated about all processes that occur with equipment, “smart” products, production in general, and so on. This requires being able to collect all this data from sensors and sensors and taking into account the context in which it is generated.
• Technical support is the third principle of Industry 4.0. Its essence is that computer systems help people make decisions by collecting, analyzing and visualizing all the information mentioned above. This support may also involve completely replacing people with machines when performing hazardous or routine tasks.
• The fourth principle is the decentralization of management decisions, delegating some of them to cyber-physical systems. The idea is for automation to be as complete as possible: wherever a machine can operate effectively without human intervention, human replacement must occur sooner or later. In this case, employees are assigned the role of controllers who can get involved in emergency and non-standard situations.

As industry adopts these principles, there is also a change in business models. So, instead of focusing on lean manufacturing, companies are striving to introduce personalized mass production according to Agile principles and switch to producing batches of the size of a single product. At the same time, the principle of economy is preserved: robotic production is more energy efficient, accompanied by less waste and defects.

The idea is to make automation as complete as possible. Living employees are assigned the role of controllers.

Craving for self-expression
The transformation of the manufacturing industry is called a revolution precisely because the changes are not superficial, but radical: the industry is being rebuilt from top to bottom. Business models change, new companies are born, world-famous brands with a long history are erased from the face of the earth if they do not manage to join the ranks of digital revolutionaries. Customers have changed their behavior; they want an individual approach, unique products and no “consumer goods”. Those born in the USSR remember well what this word means. Soviet enterprises produced identical furniture, clothing, and dishes in huge quantities and filled the entire country with these goods. Apartments, people, streets, houses looked the same, no matter where the gaze of an external observer turned - be it Vladivostok, Krasnodar or Kaliningrad. The next generations of so-called native digital, who grew up in the Internet era, are accustomed to the fact that a whole world of offers is open to them: millions of print options on T-shirts, all shades of jeans, any kind of equipment and furniture are just one click away. They don’t want to be the same, they try to emphasize their individual characteristics and express their mood.

Enterprises accustomed to producing the same things have to adapt. The introduction of Industry 4.0 principles allows you to obtain a number of advantages that were not available in traditional models of the past. For example, companies can now achieve a personal touch and personalize orders according to customers' personal preferences, which dramatically increases customer loyalty. Old plants and factories are turning into “smart” ones and starting to produce literally one-piece products made to order. At the same time, the unit costs of producing a unit of product are reduced, and companies have the opportunity to produce a unique, personalized product at the cost of a mass standardized product.

For example, today you can, sitting in a cafe on Tverskaya, download the Nike app or go to the company’s website, choose a model of sneakers, paint them with the colors of your favorite football team, pay and receive them a few weeks later. It will cost $120 excluding shipping - no more expensive than regular non-personalized sneakers from the same company.

The manufacturer gets the opportunity to offer customers a large number of unique options for their product, which provides an additional source of profit and increases the profitability of the business.

Engines, servers, and basically anything else can be produced to order. At the Fujitsu Siemens plant in the German city of Augsburg, computer systems and servers are produced literally piece by piece for a specific customer.

The costs of producing custom-made products in a highly automated enterprise are low: if in the past for each pair of sneakers you would have to reconfigure the equipment manually, today the computer system does this itself and in a matter of seconds. Robotization of Tesla factories that produce electric cars allowed the company to expand production not in China, but in California. This turned out to be cheaper than using the labor of Chinese workers and then paying for the transportation of finished cars. The Fourth Industrial Revolution, as you can see, is changing not only the business of individual companies, it is affecting the balance of power at the global level. Who would have thought that a car manufacturer that is not even ten years old - Tesla was founded in 2008 - would overtake in capitalization the leader of the second industrial revolution, which occurred as a result of the invention of the assembly line and the transition to mass production - Ford Motors.

Thanks to new technologies, another well-known manufacturer, adidas, is moving its production back to Germany. At the new factory, all operations will be performed by robots. This will not only optimize production, but will also dramatically increase speed.

Robotization of Tesla factories that produce electric cars allowed the company to expand production not in China, but in California.

Era of change
Not all companies with a long history will survive this wave of digital transformation. 52% of Fortune 500 companies from 2000 do not exist today. But those that can adapt will benefit doubly: consumers are loyal to reputable brands and are willing to stay with them if they switch to a personalized approach. For example, shares of Harley-Davidson, after transforming its business in partnership with SAP and through the introduction of Industry 4.0 principles, grew sevenfold in six years. This is despite the fact that the company experienced a serious drop in demand for its products due to the economic crisis. Now you can order your special model of the legendary Harley in your favorite colors and receive it in just six hours straight from the factory. Thanks to SAP solutions, the manufacturing company BRP-Rotax was able to launch the production of personalized engines for light aircraft, snowmobiles and go-kart cars. The loyalty of the company's customers, who can now get an engine based on their own preferences and specific needs, has increased significantly - as have BRP-Rotax sales.

The transition to smart manufacturing is, of course, not such a simple matter. If a company is using an old version of an ERP system, this may be a bottleneck in implementing Industry 4.0 principles. If an individual configuration is required when producing tens of thousands of finished products, then the volume of data increases by several orders of magnitude, and only a system specially created for this can support such an amount of information. Such as, for example, SAP S/4HANA - a new generation ERP system, a corporate solution for managing enterprise resources. The system is designed taking into account the most modern technologies: support for the Internet of things, machine learning, processing large amounts of data in RAM. She knows how to solve business problems that were previously difficult to implement due to insufficient development of technology or unreasonably high costs of human resources.

For example, one SAP customer produces one engine every eight seconds across three production lines. In such a complex production facility, it is necessary to carry out ten thousand material transactions per minute for an individual customer order. Using S/4HANA, the company processes component write-offs in real time without the need for batch processing at the end of each shift. This allows you to have up-to-date information about inventory balances at any given time. S/4HANA supports precision production planning functionality and the ability to plan across a complete logistics network using a single master data and system. This significantly increases the accuracy and efficiency of planning.

Data volumes are increasing by several orders of magnitude, and only a specially created system for this purpose, for example, S/4HANA based on the advanced “in-memory” platform SAP HANA, can support this amount of information.

If you'd like to learn how Industry 4.0 can benefit your business and how you can transform it using advanced technologies, contact SAP at www.sap.com.

One of the main themes of the World Economic Forum in Davos was again the Fourth Industrial Revolution - 27 fund meetings in 2017 were devoted to Industry 4.0.

This is the name given to the current era of innovation, when advanced technologies are radically changing entire sectors of the economy at an amazingly fast pace.

A completely new type of industrial production will emerge, which will be based on so-called big data and its analysis, full automation of production, augmented reality technologies, and the Internet of things.

Korrespondent.net I decided to figure out what the Fourth Industrial Revolution is.

World Economic Forum. What is this?

The WEF is a private foundation headquartered in Geneva, supported by international members and partners who make financial contributions. At the annual meeting, they share their experiences and opinions on various issues.

Among about a hundred of the forum’s partners are such giants as ABB, Nestle, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deloitte, Deutsche Bank and Google. They determine the agenda of the WEF and participation in its financing: each year each contributes an amount of 115 thousand dollars.

The fund's members are about 1.2 thousand of the world's largest companies, which pay 31.5 thousand dollars a year. Politicians, prominent thinkers, scientists and journalists are also invited.

The forum in Davos manages to bring together 2.5 thousand representatives of politics, business, science and media from more than 90 countries of the world under one roof to all discuss current problems “for the sake of a better world.”

Signs of Industry 4.0

The first industrial revolution began in the second half of the 18th century after the advent of steam engines, which made it possible to move from manual labor to machine labor.

The second occurred with the development of electricity and was characterized by the development of mass assembly line production.

The third industrial revolution, also called the digital revolution, began in the second half of the 20th century with the creation of digital computers and the subsequent evolution of information technology. Our world lives in this era.

The digital revolution in this period of time is moving into the fourth, the features of which are the massive introduction of cyber-physical systems into production.

As WEF founder Klaus Schwab describes the Industrial Revolution 4.0, it blurs the boundaries between the physical, digital and biological spheres. By the way, he wrote a whole book about this, which is called the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Industry 4.0 is blurring the boundaries between the physical, digital and biological spheres

“We're talking about a wave of discoveries driven by advances in connectivity: robots, drones, smart cities, artificial intelligence, brain research,” Schwabe says.

It is expected that these cyber-physical systems will be united into one network, communicate with each other in real time, self-adjust and learn new behavior patterns.

They will be able to build production with fewer errors, interact with manufactured goods and, if necessary, adapt to new consumer needs.

For example, during the production process, a product will be able to independently determine the equipment capable of producing it, while doing so in a completely autonomous mode without human intervention.

A product in the process of release will be able to independently determine the equipment capable of producing it

The world’s first steps towards a new industrial revolution were cloud technologies, the development of methods for collecting and analyzing Big Data, crowdsourcing, biotechnology, self-driving cars and medicine based on 3D printing. In the world of finance, these are Bitcoin cryptocurrencies and Blockchain technologies.

Big Data

The concept of Big Data is a set of technologies that are designed to perform the following operations:

Process large volumes of data compared to “standard” scenarios

Be able to work with quickly arriving data in very large volumes

Be able to work with structured and poorly structured data in parallel in different aspects.

An example of Big Data would be the Large Hadron Collider, which produces a huge amount of data and does it constantly. The installation continuously produces large volumes of data, and scientists use it to solve many problems in parallel.

Internet of Things

Internet of Things is the concept of a space in which everything from the analog and digital worlds can be combined.

This is not just a lot of different devices and sensors, interconnected by wired and wireless communication channels and connected to the Internet, but a closer integration of the real and virtual worlds, in which communication takes place between people and devices.

Virtual and augmented reality

Virtual reality is a world created by technical means, transmitted to a person through his senses: vision, hearing, smell, touch and others. Virtual reality simulates both exposure and reactions to exposure.

Augmented reality implies the ability to add virtual properties to physical objects, for example, displaying information about them, which, moreover, can be individualized for a specific subject of perception.

3D printing

Printing on a 3D printer can be done in different ways and using different materials, but any of them is based on the principle of layer-by-layer creation (growing) of a solid object.

This is a universal method for creating a wide range of physical objects based on a single platform. It makes it possible to abandon heterogeneous approaches to solving various problems in favor of a unified approach implemented digitally.

There are also experimental bioprinters in which the 3D structure of a future object (an organ for transplant) is printed using droplets containing living cells.

Consequences and risks of the industrial revolution

For the economy

Sectors of the economy with access to large amounts of data will have the opportunity to radically improve the quality of decisions made based on them, especially routine ones.

This applies to banking, legal services, insurance, accounting, management, consulting and auditing, metrological support, and healthcare.

Klaus Schwab identifies four main effects:

Rising customer expectations

Improving product quality

Collaborative innovation and new forms of organization.

Companies that own a unique platform that brings together many people will have an advantage.

For people

Although a person will be freed from hard and routine work, the complete independence of production from people will lead to massive job losses, which can now be observed in countries where automation is practiced in factories.

Advances in technology can also cause a widening gap between income from capital and income from labor and, as a result, increased inequality. The demand for workers with a low level of education and lower qualifications, on the contrary, will decrease.

Therefore, experts urge states to worry about this issue now and prepare for a new industrial revolution.

Countries with low-wage labor may lose their advantage over developed countries and fall further behind them.

For man

The new world based on digital technology will change the human personality as Industry 4.0 will introduce new principles in ethics and aesthetics.

A person will be able to customize goods and servants for himself, as well as create a “continuation” of the world that he specifically likes.

As a person immerses himself in the digital environment, his individual behavior will become more digitized and will provoke alienation from his inner world, the lack of freedom to form his own personality, the segregation of people based on their identity, and, as a result, the polarization of human communities.

For the state

The more closely the physical world intersects with the digital world, the more opportunities there will be to control and monitor unwanted events around the world through digital networks.

New technologies will enable citizens to influence the political life of their state, but Industry 4.0 will exacerbate security problems, and wars in the future will have a completely different nature.

According to Schwabe, future conflicts will be hybrid in nature and combine direct actions on the battlefield with non-state phenomena and elements.

“The line between war and peace, soldier and civilian, and even violence and non-violence (cyberterrorism) is becoming frighteningly blurred. With the development of military technologies, the advent of biological and autonomous weapons, non-state groups of people will reach the same level of lethality as states,” says the WEF chairman .

In addition, the worsening situation of the middle class can lead to an imbalance in political systems based on the middle class, strengthening the ideas of populism, radicalism, fundamentalism and militarism, which we can already observe.

This, in turn, will lead to increased global uncertainty.

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Automation

Industrial revolution 4.0: real and imaginary threats

The global industry is facing huge changes

Leading industrial countries are preparing for increased global competition and are developing new development programs. All of them - from the German "Industry 4.0" to the American "Internet of Things" and "Made in China 2025" - focus on the intellectualization of production and a further increase in the level of automation. Germany was the first to enter this race, but the pedantry and scrupulousness of the Germans can play a cruel joke on them. While commas were being checked on the banks of the Rhine, a group of leading American companies also decided to start developing standards for new production.

It is argued that the fourth industrial revolution will seriously change the value chain, and entire traditional industries will disappear. We asked experts from leading European companies what the new industrial order threatens the world with and how domestic companies should prepare for the digital future.

“The next decade will bring big and rapid changes, the global industry will change beyond recognition...” Should we believe such magazine headlines and is the fourth industrial revolution threatening the world?

Of course, in the coming years we will see major changes that will affect many industries. Already now, modularity of design and flexibility of approaches to the implementation of their functions are at the forefront when designing machines and machine tools. Access to the automated control system of a workshop or an entire enterprise from mobile devices via the Internet has now become part of the daily work of industry in developed countries. And the fact that individual components and assemblies will become “smarter and more independent” is a matter of the near future.

Maxim Sonnykh, Bosch Rexroth

The revolution in global industry has already begun. Today we see a steady trend towards a transition from strict centralized process management to a decentralized model for collecting, processing information and ultimately making decisions. Moreover, the level of productivity and autonomy of decentralized systems is constantly growing. Ultimately, such a system becomes an active system component capable of autonomously managing its production process.

Bosch Rexroth has traditionally paid great attention to the creation of products and system solutions aimed at working as part of production lines built in accordance with the Industry 4.0 philosophy. The company, for example, offers hydraulic and electrical intelligent drives that integrate via Ethernet into flexible manufacturing systems, as well as a family of industrial controllers prepared for integration with IT systems and mobile devices using an Open Core interface. The concept of Industry 4.0 in general is being widely implemented in Bosch factories around the world.

Björn Frerking, Siemens

I would not say that Industry 4.0 is a threat. This is a great chance to revolutionize today's industry. The interconnection of the virtual and real worlds will speed up the production process and create individual solutions at the optimal price for the customer. Everything that designers, engineers and entrepreneurs, right down to the average user of industrial products, are now dreaming of will come true and, moreover, will be able to make a profit thanks to Industry 4.0.

Dmitry Vasiliev, FESTO-RF

In the next decade, we will see rapid development of computer automation (within the framework of the third industrial order), but still with a rigid organization of processes: improvement of production processes, building closer cross-level connections, development of software products for calculation and design. But the implementation of the ideas of Industry 4.0 (self-organization, lack of a detailed production plan, independent interaction between means and production objects), according to the calculations of the German government, is coming by 2030 - 2050.

Although it must be said that Festo, as an active participant in I4.0, already in 2016 plans to open an innovative plant for the production of valve terminals and controllers, where individual concepts and technological developments of Industry 4.0 will be gradually introduced.

The Germans were the first to talk about digital factories of the future in 2011, but last spring the Americans created the IIC consortium. And, of course, the struggle for the right to develop future standards is still ahead. Will common universal standards eventually emerge, or will history repeat itself with industrial networks?

Maxim Sonnykh, Bosch Rexroth

It is clear that such a unified standard must be developed with a flexible real-time protocol implemented via a wireless network or Ethernet. At least at the physical level, a situation similar to the story with industrial networks cannot be repeated, fortunately.

Björn Frerking, Siemens

Innovations in the field of Industry 4.0 are based on existing solutions and standards. And Siemens occupies a special place here, since the company not only adheres to standards, but also creates them together with other market leaders. Standards will continue to evolve. Today, when you plug a kettle into a power outlet, you don’t think about whether it will work correctly. We see that the cyber-physical systems of the future will have to work according to the Plug and Produce principle, since this is a customer requirement that everyone must listen to, and we have been doing this for all 168 years of our work.

Dmitry Vasiliev, FESTO-RF

For the Germans, Industry 4.0 is supported by the government and is being developed systematically. The creation of the Industrial Internet Consortium - IIC (Industrial Internet Consortium), as it seems to me, is nothing more than an attempt by the American giants of the IT industry (among the first Cisco) not to stand aside and not lose the market in the future.

As far as regulations and standards are concerned, the physical layer will be Ethernet (wired or wireless). On the software side, experts have high hopes for OPC UA (OPC Unified Architecture), developed by the industrial consortium OPC Foundation.

Dmitry Chernyakov, "B+R Industrial Automation"

I believe that history will repeat itself with the emergence of a certain number of different standards. Globalization has not yet gone far enough to unite the entire world industry under a common standard of communication and control.

If a company is choosing between Industrial Ethernet and Fieldbus today, which should it choose?

Björn Frerking, Siemens

The world does not stand still. Industrial Ethernet and Fieldbus are modern technologies, as are Profinet and Profibus. The key here is to choose a system that is offered by a reliable, innovative and globally represented supplier such as Siemens.

Depending on the level of automation, you can make a choice in favor of one solution or another, conduct expert analysis, and expensive design. Our approach is to save the customer from such headaches and offer the optimal solution based on both innovation and international industrial standards. In Industry 4.0, the role of industrial networks will increase, and we are already seeing demand for a single solution from Russian industry. If we look more broadly, at the Siemens digital enterprise we design products, simulate the operation of the plant, develop technology, transfer it to production, produce products, transmit information about the operation of equipment, process production orders, and all the data here is transmitted over various kinds of networks. All this helps to reduce the time to bring products to market, which in modern conditions is difficult to overestimate. Very interesting times are coming for engineers at Russian enterprises!

Dmitry Chernyakov, "B+R Industrial Automation"

There is no clear answer. After all, there are several options for different fieldbus protocols, each of which has its own advantages and disadvantages. The choice greatly depends on the requirements for the Network. If the end user needs hard real time with high speed data exchange between network nodes, it is better to build a network based on Ethernet technologies. For example, the industrial real-time Ethernet POWERLINK protocol is very popular among machine builders due to its open source code and the ability to easily adapt it to the requirements of high-speed production processes.

Maxim Sonnykh, Bosch Rexroth

Of course, Ethernet is the future. This is due to the unification of the hardware base, throughput, and ease of use. However, for a number of tasks, such as data collection in hostile environments, the use of low-level Fieldbus variations is the optimal, and often the only, solution.

The Siemens PLC factory in Amberg, Bavaria, is a prototype of the fully automated production of the future

How to briefly describe what the Germans call today “Industry 4.0” and the Americans “Internet of Things”?

Björn Frerking, Siemens

Industry 4.0 is primarily about innovation and production. This is the B2B sector. This is what can make our customers more competitive in the struggle to implement their ideas and produce products. The Internet of Things is aimed more at the direct consumer.

Dmitry Vasiliev, FESTO-RF

"Industry 4.0" is a concept for the development of industrial production based on maximum individualization of manufactured products with almost 100% automation. This will become possible thanks to the presence of greater “intelligence” in machines, equipment and even processed workpieces, as well as autonomous data exchange between them and autonomous decision-making.

“Internet of Things” is a more general concept and covers all objects around us: gadgets, household appliances, furniture, etc. Objects will also have “intelligence” and communicate with each other, helping us in everyday life.

Dmitry Chernyakov, "B+R Industrial Automation"

The “Internet of Things” is the operator-independent connection of each individual machine unit with an automated process control system, self-diagnosis, self-regulation and self-tuning within the production cycle.

Maxim Sonnykh, Bosch Rexroth

The term "Industry 4.0" should be understood as highly autonomous decentralized reconfigurable production, characterized by continuous information exchange between its subsystems and production facilities within the framework of ongoing production and logistics processes.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution differs from previous manufacturing theories in its flexibility, intelligence, reactivity, data- and knowledge-based integrated production of future products in smart factories. In such a production, people are the center of attention, all tasks are performed with the support of intelligent systems. Industry 4.0 is not just a buzzword for KUKA. Through our membership in national and international standards committees (eg OPC Foundation), we actively participate in discussions on the topic of Industry 4.0. We are included in the Industry 4.0 platform working group of the German Mechanical Engineering Association (VDMA) and other industry associations. KUKA supports the opportunity to join forces with all partners and associations, since cloud and automation technology providers cannot realize Industry 4.0 ideas alone. All parties need strong alliances with high-tech manufacturers.

KUKA promotes and shapes Industry 4.0! Making the ideal concept of smart manufacturing a reality is only possible with high-performance production systems that are not only efficient, but also flexible. KUKA already offers products that are ready for Industry 4.0. Industry 4.0 and the Internet of Things are at the intersection of a wide range of components, data sources, services and systems. If compatibility is not guaranteed, the potential of smart manufacturing can only be realized to a very limited level. KUKA invests in internationally recognized open standards in order to ensure maximum compatibility for its customers.

The share of industry in Russian GDP is about 14%. Is Revolution 4.0 an opportunity or a threat for us? How should domestic companies prepare for the digital future?

Dmitry Vasiliev, FESTO-RF

Firstly, you shouldn’t position Industry 4.0 as the fourth industrial revolution. We are talking about a completely evolutionary path of development. And then these are not weapons of mass destruction. The results of work within the framework of this concept (for example, new products in the field of automation and information) will be able to be used throughout the world, including in Russia. Therefore, advanced domestic companies can monitor new products and gradually introduce them.

Maxim Sonnykh, Bosch Rexroth

Industry 4.0 entails increased efficiency and adaptability of the production process. Lines built according to the new philosophy will ensure efficient production in small quantities and allow for rapid changes to the product and production process. The introduction of the principles of "Industry 4.0" at domestic enterprises will lead to an increase in the quality of products and will provide the ability to quickly re-adjust the line, which will ultimately increase their competitiveness

Dmitry Kapishnikov, Kuka Robotics Rus

Revolution 4.0 is definitely an opportunity for us. A chance to be one of the first to enter a new era of industry and thus secure a foundation for the future.

Domestic companies should think about medium- and long-term planning in their activities, which is certainly difficult in the current Russian realities. However, those companies that are more prepared have a good chance of increasing their market share and becoming major players in their segments.

Björn Frerking, Siemens

Russia has prospects in the field of creating world-famous production of finished products. We are talking about brands such as Heinz, Coca-Cola, Mercedes-Benz, Louis Vuitton. "Industry 4.0" is the very chance through which it is possible to reduce the gap in this area and introduce new brands. Because Industry 4.0 is, first of all, standardization, an innovative complex and a set of technological processes that can be easily integrated into flexible production cells, which in turn can interact with each other. This approach facilitates planning and reduces investment costs and risks. In addition, small businesses also have prospects for introducing Industry 4.0. Small and poorly organized companies with little funding but creative and truly disruptive ideas can reap significant benefits. To do this, they just need to contact the Digital Manufacturing department of Siemens, and together we will try to develop a solution that will strengthen their position in the market.

Constructor. Mechanical engineer, 2015-2