In Catalonia, announced the preliminary results of the referendum on independence - 90%, more than two million people, said "yes" to the separation of Catalonia from Spain. The head of the autonomy, Carles Puigdemont, convened an emergency meeting of the government to decide what to do in the current situation.
The pressure from Madrid is unprecedented. What happened during the voting does not correspond to European democratic values: carnage in the streets, rubber truncheons, tear gas. In the near future, the final results of the referendum will be submitted to the Parliament of Catalonia, and the deputies will determine the future of the region.
Yesterday the police blocked the civilians, today everything is exactly the opposite. The Spanish flag is rolled up as if ahead of the curve. Young people say - imagine what would have happened if the crowd and the guards were left alone.
“To be honest, I think the Catalan police here are protecting the citizens from the Spanish police,” said Catalan MP Tony Gastella.
The demonstration was attended by the deputy of the Catalan parliament Tony Gastella - one of those who are about to declare independence from Spain.
“The members of parliament in the coming days will do what the people of Catalonia ask us to do, and we have a mandate for this, a democratic mandate that gives the right to declare independence. And we will do it! " - said the deputy of the Parliament of Catalonia Tony Gastella.
There is another mass demonstration a couple of blocks from the police station. The crowd strides towards Plaza Catalunya in unaccustomed silence for Barcelona. A wave of police violence forced both supporters and opponents of independence to join the general march.
“Yesterday we expressed different points of view at the referendum, but here today we are all at the same time. Look around, not everyone here voted for independence, ”said Cristina Rodriguez, a professor at the University of Barcelona.
Still, the majority of those wishing to secede here - those, according to the preliminary results of the referendum, are 90%. The turnout the day before - more than two million - about a third of the population of Catalonia
“The referendum has legal force. The referendum on the independence of Catalonia, in which on Sunday 90% of the participants voted for the separation of autonomy from Spain, won, and its decisions must be implemented, "said the Prime Minister of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont.
As soon as the results of the referendum are officially announced - the last ballots are taken into account, the parliament will probably immediately pass a law on secession. Politicians in Madrid feel they have lost control of the region. They demand that the Prime Minister of Spain immediately apply the 155th article of the Constitution - to abolish autonomy, to introduce manual control from Madrid throughout Catalonia.
“The fact is that the referendum took place from the point of view of our law, the law of Catalonia. We now have two laws: the one that determines the parliament in Catalonia, and the one that determines the parliament in Madrid. The decision of our parliament is absolutely legal, and we asked Madrid to hold a referendum, but you know, this is absolutely impossible, so we follow our law and there is no other alternative, ”says lecturer at the University of Barcelona, Luis Pirato.
Barcelona, in response, demands the removal of the Spanish police and national guard from Catalonia.
The number of civilians injured during the referendum, according to the mayor of Barcelona, is already about a thousand. But on the part of the security forces, according to fresh information from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, there are many victims - more than four hundred soldiers. OSCE, UN and European authorities have called for an end to unnecessary and disproportionate brutality. But they refused to recognize the results of voting in the referendum in the EU.
“In accordance with the Spanish Constitution, yesterday's vote in Catalonia was illegal. As President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker has repeatedly said, this is an internal question of Spain, ”said the official representative of the European Commission, Margaritis Skinas.
The European Union stands in solidarity with the government of Mariano Rajoya. The head of the European Commission notes that if Catalonia nevertheless leaves Spain, the young republic has nothing to do in the EU. In addition, Catalonia has already received an official refusal from Brussels - he will not become an intermediary in negotiations with Madrid.
The Spanish authorities, probably for this very reason, have not yet recalled from Catalonia thousands of security officials loyal to Madrid transferred to the region. There have been no clashes on the streets for a day now, but the X-hour - the moment of proclamation of independence - is still ahead. Under the threat of arrest, the entire top of the Catalan government, deputies and mayors - everyone who will side with Barcelona, and not the Spanish capital.
October 1, 2017 will go down in the history of Catalonia as another attempt to declare independence from Spain. As promised in Madrid, everything possible was done to disrupt the vote. The attempt to secede was not only unsuccessful, but also tragic - this time, political passions in Catalonia took several lives.
How it was: the eve of the vote
On the eve of the referendum, the balance of power was not in favor of Catalonia. On the side of the local government was the massive support of thousands of fellow citizens. September 29 and 30 rallies of supporters of independence were held.
In the center of Barcelona, an action was also held by opponents of the secession of Catalonia. Thousands of Spaniards marched against the referendum and for the unity of Spain. People with national flags chanted "Don't let them fool you, Catalonia is Spain." Demonstrators called on regional leader Carles Puigdemont to step down.
Spain's countermeasures
On the Spanish side, there were organizational advantages and countermeasures. A few days before the vote, the police took control of most of the polling stations. Enric Millo, spokesman for the Spanish government in Catalonia, reported:
“Today (September 26 - author's note) we can confirm that there will be no effective referendum in Catalonia. All logistics of the referendum have been dismantled "
September 29th 4 million envelopes and 100 ballot boxes. The Madrid authorities have promised that 25 thousand police officers will block 2.5 thousand polling stations in the region to prevent voting.
Before the open confrontation, the Spanish government was ready to discuss options for developing relations with Catalonia, and even in exchange for refusing the referendum. September 29th it became known that Madrid is not ready to continue the dialogue with the Puigdemont government. The best option for the Catalan leader, according to the Spanish government, would be to resign and call early parliamentary elections. Dolors Montserrat, Spain's Minister of Health, Social Relations and Equality, said:
"Of course, the only dialogue possible for Puigdemont is a dialogue with law enforcement agencies."
September 30th Spanish police took control of the Telecommunications and Information Technology Center of the Catalan government, and blocked 1,300 out of 2,315 schools. 163 schools were defended by activists and supporters of the referendum.
On that day in the evening in one of the schools equipped for voting, an unknown person opened fire from pneumatics. 4 people were injured.
Election day: clashes between parties, rubber bullets, police brutality, rallies for unity
1st October morning began with clashes between the warring parties. In the newly occupied polling stations, the police began to seize ballots and ballot boxes. Madrid justified the actions of the security forces by the implementation of the law. Spanish Minister of the Interior Juan Ignacio Zoido:
“The police and the Civil Guard have started to enforce the judgment. These are the first urns "
Law enforcers broke into the site in the province of Girona, where Puigdemont was supposed to vote. Later it became known that the Catalan leader had cast his vote for the independence of the region at one of the polling stations controlled by referendum activists.
Closer to lunch the confrontation intensified, information appeared in the press that the security forces used rubber bullets against the supporters of the secession.
A video of the brutal treatment of activists by the security forces also appeared on the network:
"Spanish police shoot rubber bullets at protesters outside a polling station in Barcelona"
The first casualties were announced - 38 people with minor wounds on both sides. The Spanish Ministry of the Interior reported on the injured by the authorities:
"So far, nine police officers and two civil guard officers have been injured while executing a judgment."
Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau tweeted for the resignation of the Spanish Prime Minister. And she demanded an end to violence against the demonstrators:
"Violence always loses"
Some Barcelona players have publicly expressed solidarity with the Catalan people who share the region's right to a secession referendum.
After noon the number of injured has increased significantly:
"A Catalan government spokesman said 337 people were injured as a result of the dispersal of the Spanish police, some seriously injured."
A Spanish court opened proceedings against the Catalan police with a charge of inaction:
"In connection with the possible commission of a crime, which consists in disobeying a court decision, preliminary proceedings were opened to determine the circumstances and nature of the events, as well as the persons involved in this"
Due to the deterioration of the general situation, the Catalan authorities decided to end the voting before the official end of the referendum.
(Not) comforting results
In the morning 2 October it became known that 3 people were killed, about 850 people were injured, including 38 Spanish police officers. Most cases were recorded in Barcelona. Voting was disrupted, as was the counting of those who had already voted, as the security forces were able to block the electronic counting system. They confiscated 700 thousand completed ballots.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy commented on the referendum as such that it did not take place:
“There was no referendum in Catalonia today. The rule of law has retained its strength. The government kept insisting that this referendum would not take place, they - those who promoted this challenge - knew this all along, they assumed it last week and noted it very clearly yesterday and noted today that the referendum was illegal. Despite this, they decided to move on. "
Rajoy believes that the police were doing their job, and the Catalans did not want to secede from Spain:
"The overwhelming majority of Catalans did not want to participate in this census of the separatists, and this is an indisputable fact."
Spanish Foreign Minister Alfonso Dastis also criticized the referendum:
“What they are promoting is not democracy. This is a mockery of democracy, this is a parody of democracy "
In turn, the Catalan government announced the results of the referendum with support for independence in the amount of 90% of voters. The leader of the autonomy, Carles Puigdemont, condemned the actions of the central authorities, believing that what was happening showed Spain in a "bad light":
"The unjustified, disproportionate and irresponsible violence of the Spanish state today did not affect the desire of the Catalans to vote"
“Today was a day of hope, and the citizens of Catalonia won the right to have an independent state in the form of a republic. Won their right to sovereignty. This is no longer an internal affair, it is a European affair. Today the Spanish government has written a shameful page in relations with Catalonia ... unfortunately, not the first "
The president of the autonomy did not comment on the responsibility for the condition of the victims. On the eve of September 28, the Minister of the Interior of Catalonia, Joaquin Forn, promised:
"The position of the government (Catalan - author's note) is very clear: people will be able to vote."
Like the Madrid authorities, they did not consider it necessary to remain within the framework of their powers, but acted toughly. Investigation into the deaths continues.
Results in numbers
As stated in the government of the autonomy, the number of those who were able to vote and supported independence from Spain is 90% of voters. More than 2 million people wished to see Catalonia as a separate state. Almost 8% of those who voted were against, 3% of the ballots turned out to be invalid:
"Of the 2,262,424 ballots that were not withdrawn, 2,020,144 were in favor, 176,566 were against, 45,586 empty and 20,129 zero votes."
"Silence" of Europe and support of the Russian Federation
Official Madrid was supported by Europe and the leaders of the EU, King of Spain Filipe VI. Generalité President Carles Puigdemont expressed disappointment with the EU over the "silence on the referendum" on the evening of September 30:
“I think the EU has neglected its responsibility. The EU, which is so bold in making moralizing speeches about other places on the planet, might have something to say. In this sense, I am very disappointed. "
Russia took the side of the protest region behind the scenes and not officially. According to Western press reports, Russian hackers helped Catalans create online clones of sites with information about the referendum. Since the Spanish authorities closed the official source on the October 1 vote, the Catalan leadership resorted to alternative resources and servers from other countries. In this he was helped by a group of hackers from Russia, who multiplied links to new sites.
Before the start of a referendum by a court decision. The difficulty of closing sites on the servers of other countries was the length of the procedure. From the police there was a request to the police of the country of the domain with a court order, and they, in turn, studied the content and made a decision.
Russia was not chosen as a "support" by chance. There is no digital information exchange between the Russian Federation and the EU, and relations in this area are not legally regulated. From the EU countries, it would be easier for the Spanish authorities to influence clone sites. The press wrote:
Russia rendered its support purely for personal purposes - any weakening of the EU plays into the hands of the Kremlin. As well as diverting the attention of European leaders from Ukraine and Russian troops in Donbass.
Probably, the confrontation between the parties will not end there. Most likely, the Spanish authorities will continue to pressure and try to overthrow Puigdemont's rule. There will be no recognition of the results of the referendum, neither by the Spanish Crown, nor by the central government, nor by the EU. Accordingly, the confrontation will continue, which will destabilize the situation in the country. Sociological polls with the mood of the population will be indicative.
Neither side will take responsibility for the death of people, but will try to shift it onto opponents. This could further exacerbate the split in Spanish society. Overcoming the crisis is likely to be long and painful, the bright hopes for the independence of Catalonia will have to be postponed indefinitely.
On the other hand, Catalonia could set a precedent for unrest in other regions of Spain, for example, in the autonomous Basque region, also known for its centrifugal movements. Or provoke the rise of Euroscepticism in Europe by strengthening nationalist movements in a number of countries. Populist forces of various kinds will be able to speculate on the topic of violated rights of people and abandonment of democracy. Puigdemont was right that the Catalan situation is a common European problem. In order to defend the legality of its actions and calm the unrest a little, Spain needs to thoroughly investigate the abuse of power by law enforcement officials and punish those responsible.
Supporters of Catalonia's withdrawal from Spain the day after the referendum. Photo: Reuters
Catalans, who bravely voted to secede their region from Spain amid the massacre perpetrated against them by the Spanish security forces, will be disappointed. The European Union, in which they want to remain as an independent state, is cold to their separatist aspirations and points them to the law.
If Catalonia does secede from Spain, it will most likely have to say goodbye to the EU as well. At least so far it looks like this.
Laws can be changed, but this is a political process, a search for a new compromise.
The day after the events in Catalonia, everyone was eagerly awaiting the EU's reaction, believing that Brussels would set the political course. They waited in vain.
The widespread opinion that Europe is ruled by Brussels represented by the officials of the European Commission is, to put it mildly, incorrect. Although the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, called his cabinet "political", the EC cannot make important political decisions and make statements outside of its powers. The bureaucracy is put by the leaders of the EU states to observe the laws they have passed. They rule Europe. On Monday, the leaders of the major EU countries remained silent about the Catalan referendum.
Even many journalists accredited to the EU, who know his cuisine, hoped at a daily briefing to snatch from the press secretary of the European Commission Margaritis Schinas a more or less intelligible comment on what happened on Sunday.
But, as expected, he read out a short statement, from which it follows that Brussels observes the letter of the law. And from it it follows that the referendum in Catalonia was illegal, the Catalan problem is an internal problem of Spain and should be resolved through a political dialogue between Madrid and Barcelona. But even if the referendum was held by agreement with Madrid and in accordance with the Spanish constitution, the territory leaving the country would be outside the EU. True, the last statement, known as the "Prodi Doctrine", put forward 13 years ago by the then President of the European Commission, strictly speaking, is not a law, but is accepted by the EU countries as the norm.
Nevertheless, in the statement of the European Commission there was a place not only for a purely legal assessment, but also for politics. Brussels believes that in these difficult times, EU unity and stability is needed, not division and fragmentation. He calls on Madrid and Barcelona to get out of confrontation and return to political dialogue as soon as possible, and relies on the ability of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to organize this delicate process in full accordance with the country's constitution and respecting the fundamental rights of citizens.
The only negative signal addressed to Madrid, sounded in the EC statement, was in the words that “violence can never be a political instrument”. No matter how the journalists tried to get from the press secretary words of condemnation of the actions of the Spanish security forces or an allusion to the initiation of a case against Spain under Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty, which implies expulsion from the EU for gross violations of human rights, he remained silent, like a partisan.
Catalonia is not Serbia or Macedonia. It has all the norms and principles that are binding on the EU countries (the so-called Acquis), it does not need to pass a strict entrance exam for compliance with the “Copenhagen criteria”.
The Permanent Representative of Catalonia to the EU, Amadeu Alfataj, with whom we spoke on the eve of the referendum, hoped for the adoption of a legislative norm that would allow the "internal enlargement" of the EU, i.e. facilitated procedure for joining the union of new states that have arisen on its territory. But admission to the EU is, first of all, a political act, for which all members of the union must vote. Now you can hardly imagine that Spain will vote for this, having lost the richest region. And other EU members are unlikely to be ready to open such a "Pandora's box".
But not all government leaders remained silent. Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel, whose country is made up of three regions differing in language, economy and culture, on Sunday in his tweet urged Madrid and Barcelona to return to political dialogue and condemned the violence. Over the past half century, his country has changed the constitution six times, turned from a unitary state with one state language into an almost confederation. Each time the political negotiation process of the parties was long and exhausting, but the compromise won out. There was even such a thing as “Belgian compromise”. Hot Catalans and Spaniards, apparently, learn from their northern counterparts (the current territory of Belgium was once part of the Spanish Netherlands).
Brussels
Its results have yet to be announced, but there is little doubt that they will be positive. Since it was mainly attended by supporters of independence after the central government used force to stop the vote.
Meanwhile, the consequences of the referendum may affect not only Spain, but the entire European Union. Experts put forward several versions of how events might develop further.
1. Passions will subside, there will be no independence
According to one of the scenarios, Madrid simply does not recognize the referendum, and the leadership of Catalonia is afraid to declare independence.
As a result, the situation will get bogged down in lengthy negotiations on the status of the province, on the distribution of financial flows and the division of powers between the central government and the authorities of Catalonia.
"More than half of the Catalans themselves believe that the referendum will not be recognized as legitimate, and there will be no secession," Spanish journalist Arturo Puente told Strana. will not go anywhere and will emerge again at any moment. "
2. Separatist revolt
Another scenario is much harsher - the Catalans declare independence following a referendum, while Spain is trying to hold on to Barcelona by force, which leads to a serious civil conflict and incites the rest of the "separatists" in Spain and throughout Europe.
“The turnout was high - more than 50%, which allows Catalonia to recognize the results of the referendum. Only about a third of local residents came to a similar vote three years ago. And although the majority voted for secession from Spain, it was considered something like a poll. This time Madrid force only increased the turnout. If Barcelona arbitrarily announces its withdrawal from Spain, troops can be sent to the region, the region's autonomy can be eliminated, in fact establishing a dictatorship as in the days of Franco. The Catalans will begin armed resistance, and a "hot spot" will appear in Europe, - predicts in conversation with "Strana" political scientist from the University of Seville, Jose Mateo.
The Catalan massacre could stir up national movements in Spain and other EU countries. Support for Barcelona has already been announced in the Basque Country, autonomy in northern Spain with a long separatist tradition, as well as in British Scotland, the Belgian region of Flanders and northern Italy, claiming independence.
"If similar processes are activated in other countries, it threatens chaos and a split for the whole of Europe. Therefore, the EU and Madrid will do everything to reach an agreement with the Catalans peacefully and prevent secession," said George Gilson, a British specialist on European countries.
Manuel Valls, the former Prime Minister of France and the son of the famous Catalan artist, speaks of the threat of the collapse of the European Union. In an interview with DalyTelegraph, he said that the European project would come to an end if the vote on the independence of Catalonia was held and, as a result, this part of the country would be seceded.
3.With the euro, but by themselves
Experts also do not exclude the possibility that Catalonia will nevertheless be able to declare independence (maybe not now, but after a while), and Madrid will not dare to use full-scale force. And then a new state will appear on the map of Europe. The question is whether anyone will recognize him.
"The European Union, the UN and international organizations do not recognize the Republic of Catalonia, so as not to create a precedent and legitimize such voting at the local level," Gilson is convinced.
This means that Catalonia will live in an incomprehensible status, the British expert believes: “On the one hand, on the will hit the economy of the region, because more than half of Catalonia's products are sold to the EU. "
The option that is dreamed of in Catalonia itself is the recognition of the new state by the European Union and the entry, eventually, into the EU, while it does not seem very likely. Since this can create a domino effect and cause similar processes in many European countries.
Although, theoretically, this option cannot be ruled out.
In the end, it will be difficult for the EU and its leading countries to explain why they support democratic procedures around the world, but are not ready to recognize them within their borders. Why does the dispersal of any rallies in Moscow or Minsk receive a harsh reaction, and why the scuffle perpetrated by the Spanish guard in Barcelona did not provoke even the slightest criticism?
Such a policy of double standards can seriously undermine the credibility of the European Union and devalue any future statements regarding human rights and freedoms in other countries. Therefore, the EU may still have to somehow react to the desire of the Catalans for independence.
Economy under attack
One thing is for sure - the political turmoil in Catalonia will negatively affect the Spanish economy, which has only recently begun to recover from the crisis. Most of the multinational corporations have offices in Spain in Barcelona. The province's contribution to the country's GDP is also very large. Naturally, investors, amid political uncertainty, will not actively invest in the Catalan and Spanish economies.
"Events in Catalonia will scare off some investors who are afraid to invest in the region due to instability. Experts already predict a decline in GDP and an economic downturn in Spain. How serious the fall will be depends on further events. But the Sunday clashes have already had a negative effect," says Arturo Puente.
On Monday, it will also become clear how the euro reacted to the events in Catalonia. A number of experts on Sunday did not rule out that the European currency would begin to fall in price.
TALLINN, 6 Oct - Sputnik. The Catalan referendum was held on October 1, according to the regional government, 90% of its participants voted for independence from Spain. The fate of Catalonia will be decided on Monday 9 October - the local parliament has appointed a decisive meeting for this day.
Vladimir Vernikov, head of the Center for Iberian Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Sputnik why Madrid did not recognize the legality of the referendum and was in its own right:
Modern democratic Spain was formed in the second half of the XX century, and then the question of the independence of Catalonia was not discussed. Moreover, Catalonia voted almost unanimously in favor of the 1978 Spanish Constitution. During the time that has passed since then, the country began to develop processes inherent in other European countries - the desire for greater autonomy, political and financial.
The Spanish Constitution is the so-called "subsidiary" one. This means that the rich parts of the territory are obliged and agree to distribute their income in such a way that the most backward territories are "pulled up". Catalonia is one of the most developed parts of Spain along with the Basque Country, and they both were ready to "pull up" the lagging territories of the country. I repeat, there were no objections on their part at the time of the adoption of the Constitution.The main thesis of the current supporters of independence: "Spain is robbing Catalonia, and Catalonia is feeding the whole of Spain" - is mythologized. This topic is raised in all countries where there is an economically developed north and a “non-working” south. However, in the case of Catalonia, this is not the case. 80% of the product that is produced in Catalonia is sold in Spain. If this market will not exist, there will be no Catalonia, it will not survive on its own. Investments in the "troubled" part of Spain from Europe will not come.
The reason for the current scandal at the European level is that the Catalan authorities for many years have not wanted to have a serious conversation with the Spanish government about how to hold this referendum. It was legally possible, but the procedure for its approval prescribed in the Constitution is difficult to comply with.
At first, the government of the country had to, with the consent of the constitutional court, hold votes throughout the country. This vote could authorize or prohibit a referendum in Catalonia. The question of the independence of the region touches upon the problem of the territorial unity of the country and had to be resolved by all its citizens. The Catalan separatists did not want this. They understood that the results of a nationwide vote to hold a referendum would never be positive.
Nevertheless, observance of the Constitution and voting procedures is as much a democracy as the right of the people to self-determination, to which the proponents of the referendum appeal. To say that the Catalans want independence, and therefore have the right to neglect the lengthy procedure for agreeing a referendum, is inappropriate.Thus, it can be considered that the referendum did not take place in principle. The way it was carried out worked against the very notion of a referendum and the acceptance of its results. There was no qualification, there were no lists, there were no ballots, there were no commissions that counted votes. The same person could vote several times. From a legal point of view, the referendum turned out to be absolutely groundless.
In order for Catalonia to calm down and to negotiate with it, you need to start with changes to the Spanish Constitution. Until now, the government and the royal court, without speaking out loud about it, considered the Constitution a sacred cow that should not be touched.
But the Constitution is a living document. It can and should provide for all legal options for holding referendums and decisions on the issue of withdrawal or non-withdrawal of a particular region. Until then, in my opinion, different sides of the conflict should proceed from the fact that the existing Constitution is the law of life, and it cannot be violated. This position is adhered to by the Spanish government.
